November 28, 2020
Summary: A fairly weak zone of upper level high pressure extends from the eastern Pacific into the western U.S with a weak westerly flow aloft. This has created the typical wintertime warm air inversion above the valley floor. In some years, this would lead to widespread fog and low clouds during the night and morning hours with partial afternoon clearing. This year, though, due to the lack of rain and the injection of a dry air mass into the valley a couple of days ago, we have a condition where pleasant afternoons prevail with strong radiational cooling during the long nights of late November. As a result, widespread below freezing temperatures will continue each morning for the foreseeable future.
The next change, if you want to call it that, will be in the form of a trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest Monday. It will move into the northern Rockies Tuesday. Following this system will be a massive high stretching into western Canada as far north as the southern Yukon.
By Wednesday, models continue to trend towards the development of low center over the Midwestern U.S. which will be elongated into the Great Basin Wednesday and into the Desert Southwest Thursday. If this pattern does set up, yet another northeast flow aloft would occur. Strong surface high pressure is projected to form over the Great Basin, generating a strong off shore surface flow. If this sound eerily like the pattern of 72 hours ago, you would be correct. It’s possible a closed low could form over northern Baja by Friday, creating an Omega pattern where high pressure is squeezed into the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia while that closed low develops to our south. Medium range models give no hope for precipitation through the first week in December and possibly for the first ten days of the month.
Forecast: Clear skies through Tuesday night. Expect cold nights to continue. Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 27/62/27/61 | Reedley 27/63/28/62 | Dinuba 26/61/27/62 | |
| Porterville 27/63/27/62 | Lindsay 26/62/26/61 | Delano 27/63/28/62 | |
| Bakersfield 36/64/37/62 | Taft 44/64/45/62 | Arvin 30/64/31/62 | |
| Lamont 29/64/30/61 | Pixley 28/62/28/61 | Tulare 26/61/27/61 | |
| Woodlake 28/61/28/61 | Hanford 29/62/29/61 | Orosi 27/62/27/61 | |
Winds: Winds through Tuesday will be variable and generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions nights and early mornings.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost: Temperatures this afternoon are generally 1 or 2 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and are generally in the low to mid 60s. dew points are actually 2 to 3 degrees lower north of Kern County and 2 to 3 degrees higher in Kern County due to a weakening off shore flow. The bottom line is widespread mid to upper 20s can be again expected in most locations tonight with the coldest low lying cold spots down to 24 to 26 degrees with most flatland locations ranging from 27 to 29 and hillsides will be above freezing.
The inversion will be decent tonight with temperatures at 34 feet generally 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Coldest low lying spots will drop to 32 degrees at about 10:00pm and 28 degrees about 2:00am. Temperatures won’t rise to above freezing until 8:30 to 9:00am Sunday. Expect similar conditions Monday and Tuesday mornings.
As mentioned in the summary above, it’s possible we could see another northeast flow aloft beginning Wednesday with a possible strong off shore flow to coincide. This configuration is similar to the one 72 hours ago and it will theoretically spread a slightly cooler air mass into the valley along with another injection of dry air. This could result in the continuation of similar conditions next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
25 |
Madera
27 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
24 |
| Root creek
25 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
25 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 29/am