January 12, 2021
A pineapple connection is moving from the equatorial waters north of Hawaii into the Pacific Northwest. A powerful, slow moving storm will move through Washington and Oregon over the next 48 hours with copious amounts of precipitation from the Cascades westward. Lighter precipitation will affect mainly the northern ¼ of California. Doppler radar is showing a few renegade light showers approaching the Bay Area. Variable high clouds have spread over central California. Even so, pressures aloft are rising.
A strong upper high is building with the center of circulation roughly several hundred miles off the southern California coast. The high will expand northward and eastward by midweek, driving the storm track into western Canada. The center of this high will be fairly close to the California coast Thursday through Saturday. the valley floor is becoming progressively drier each day without rain, so it is unlikely the fog monster will take over on any given day.
Warmest locations in Kern County Wednesday through Saturday will push the 60 degree mark with widespread mid to upper 60s north of the Kern/Tulare County line.
Over the weekend, an inside slider will race from northwest to southeast through Nevada with another similar occurrence around Monday. These systems will only marginally weaken the high above California for minor cooling Sunday and Monday.
We’re still looking at dry weather for the next seven to ten days. I am still watching with great interest medium range models for about the 21 through the 24 for the possibility of a major pattern change which could result in colder weather along with the possibility of rain.
Forecast: Patchy night and morning fog and low clouds along with variable high cloudiness through Wednesday. mostly clear Wednesday through next Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds with high clouds at times, but generally mostly clear.
Due to widespread fog and low clouds, individual temperature forecasting is very tentative. If your location remains under a low overcast, expect mid to upper 40s for highs. If your location observes hazy sunshine, upper 50s to even lower 60s are likely.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/35/63/36/64 | Reedley 62/34/63/36/64 | Dinuba 61/33/62/36/61 |
| Porterville 64/34/64/36/65 | Lindsay 63/33/64/34/65 | Delano 63/34/64/37/65 |
| Bakersfield 65/41/65/43/66 | Taft 63/48/64/51/66 | Arvin 65/37/66/39/67 |
| Lamont 64/37/65/38/68 | Pixley 63/34/64/36/64 | Tulare 61/33/63/35/63 |
| Woodlake 62/34/63/35/64 | Hanford 62/35/63/37/63 | Orosi 61/33/63/35/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM fog/partial clearing 37/63 |
Saturday
AM fog/partial clearing 37/66 |
Sunday
AM fog/partial clearing 38/65 |
Monday
AM fog/partial clearing 37/64 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partial clearing 36/65 |
Two Week Outlook: January 19 through January 25: Models are indicating the possibility of a major pattern change during this period. This new pattern would be conducive for below average temperatures for the western U.S. It would also provide a greater possibility for precipitation, especially around the 23 to the 24.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Friday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: High, thin clouds based above 20,000 feet moved overhead during the night. they were fairly thin, but still, temperatures were around 1 to 2 degrees milder at most locations. The coldest locations I could find as of 6:30 were Exeter and Lindsay, both at 31. The high clouds should be more dense tonight, therefore most locations should range in the mid to upper 30s. it’s possible a few river bottom and similar low lying frost pockets could dip into the lower 30s for short durations. The high off shore will strengthen into the first half of the weekend with daytime highs moving into the mid 60s, possibly even pushing 70 in Kern County Thursday through Saturday. with warmer afternoons, temperatures have further to go, making it more difficult to reach the freezing point. Above freezing temperatures can be expected Thursday morning and beyond.
Global models are indicating a large shift in the pattern between the 21 and 24 of January which, in theory, would lead to colder weather, but possibly even some precip. We’ll certainly be following this potential pattern over the next few days.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/58% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .34, Parlier .41, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .NA, Delano .31. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 67/20. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1125. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.1 +4.0 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -2.84 or 33% of average. Month to Date: .T or -.79
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.63, or 31% of average. Month to date .00, or -.41
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Chilling hour information has been unavailable for the past three day! Orange Cove, 591, Parlier, 696, Arvin, 565, Belridge, 645, Shafter, 655, Stratford, 674, Delano, 717, Porterville, 753
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 5:05 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:53
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 58 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / M / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 58 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 61 / 31 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 2.09 37 4.68 83 5.67 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 31 3.48 70 4.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 49 0.00 0 4.68 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 16 0.00 0 4.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 33 0.00 0 4.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 16 0.00 0 4.16 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 31 0.00 0 2.37 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 10 1.10 53 2.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.96 20 5.14 107 4.80 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 21 6.04 130 4.63 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 35 4.25 85 4.99 13.95
Next report: January 12/pm