November 21, 2017
Summary: A strong upper high center remains over the southwest of San Diego this morning. The main storm track runs from southwest to northeast into the Pacific Northwest with clouds moving into northern California and with high clouds moving over central California, as well. These clouds are simply overrunning the high and pose no possibility of precipitation. We are getting into one of those situations where a warm air inversion is building over the valley, setting the stage for patchy night and morning fog in the usual suspect places and very hazy conditions elsewhere. I don’t think this pattern will break through the Thanksgiving weekend. With building high pressure above us, temperatures will warm to some of the highest values you’ll ever see for the holiday weekend.
The next chance for any minor change will be Sunday night and Monday when a cold front tries to break through the high, moving into northern California. For now, it appears any precipitation will remain to our north, but we could get an influx of marine air down the valley next week for a cooling trend, although nothing significant is expected.
Medium range models still show a west/southwest flow over California, ensuring dry weather for more than likely the rest of the month and into early December.
Forecast: Partly cloudy after patchy morning fog today and continued hazy. Mostly clear tonight through Sunday and continued hazy with patchy morning fog near the center of the valley. Partly Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday with patchy morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/44/74/46/77 | Reedley 68/44/74/45/78 | Dinuba 66/43/73/45/77 | |
| Porterville 69/44/76/48/79 | Lindsay 69/43/75/46/79 | Delano 70/47/74/47/80 | |
| Bakersfield 71/53/76/54/81 | Arvin 71/49/76/52/83 | Taft 71/54/76/55/82 | |
| Lamont 70/49/76/51/82 | Pixley 69/49/74/46/79 | Tulare 68/44/74/47/78 | |
| Woodlake 69/43/74/45/79 | Hanford 69/44/74/46/78 | Orosi 68/44/74/46/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Patchy fog/hazy sun 47/74 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/hazy sun 47/79 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 51/74 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 44/65 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 41/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 28 through December 5: This model is indicating the storm track will migrate somewhat further south during this time frame. Therefore, the risk of rain will be greater, especially after Thanksgiving. The dominant flow in the upper atmosphere will remain out of the west or southwest, so above average temperatures will continue.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday
Rain: Expect dry weather for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost information: No chance of frost for the next week to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/95% Bakersfield, 40%/70%
Actual Humidity November 19, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/53%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 19, 2017: Stratford .53, Parlier .44, Blackwell .54, Lindcove .41, Arvin .46, Orange Cove .46, Porterville .36, Delano .NA., Madera Two .50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 61, Blackwell 63, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 62, Delano NA, Madera Two 62
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 57.7 +3.7
Record Temperatures: 80/27. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 220, -95 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 19, 2017 Fresno: .31 season. or -.97. Month to Date: .36
Since November 19, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.65, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 56, Parlier, 61, Arvin, 21, Shafter, 58, Stratford, 60, Madera two, 124, Alpaugh, 46, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 41, Porterville, 109. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:43 am Sunset: 4:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1516 / 74 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 69 / 49 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.78 41 3.31 173 1.91 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.72 47 2.47 161 1.53 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.82 50 1.64 100 1.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.21 12 1.56 92 1.69 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.31 23 1.18 89 1.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.17 13 0.66 52 1.28 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 4 0.34 49 0.70 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 25 0.09 14 0.64 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.40 28 1.91 135 1.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.23 18 2.29 179 1.28 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.05 3 1.97 137 1.44 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, November 21/pm