February 17, 2021
A very strong northwest to southeast jet stream is diving through Nevada at 200+ MPH. this same northwesterly flow is not as strong over California but it’s strong enough to continue to transport relatively cold air into the region. There was local frost overnight which is discussed below.
The jet stream will begin to shift further east tonight and Thursday ahead of a new trough of low pressure which will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California later Friday into Saturday morning. light showers will spread down to a Bay Area/Stockton line late Thursday night. no precipitation is anticipated for the valley but there is a chance of light snow showers along the Sierra Nevada north of Kings Canyon. Another round of gusty winds will commence late Friday afternoon through Saturday as pressure differences increase between the northwest coast and the Desert Southwest.
The air aloft is cold but not critically so. The freezing level according to the sounding above Oakland this morning was 7,600 feet.
After Saturday, upper level high pressure which has been off the Pacific coast will begin to shift inland to continue the dry pattern through at least the middle of next week. It appears some kind of low pressure system may affect central California next Thursday, however there are many differences between models regarding timing, intensity, and location of this feature. For now, we’ll keep the chance of showers out of the forecast.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy in Kern and Southeastern Tulare County today with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this afternoon through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness Friday. Variable cloudiness Friday night through Saturday. mostly clear Saturday night and Sunday, possibly remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare
County. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Wednesday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/32/64/34/66 | Reedley 60/33/65/35/67 | Dinuba 59/30/64/34/65 |
| Porterville 59/32/65/35/67 | Lindsay 59/30/65/34/66 | Delano 60/32/65/36/67 |
| Bakersfield 59/38/65/41/68 | Taft 57/41/64/45/67 | Arvin 58/34/66/38/68 |
| Lamont 58/33/66/39/68 | Pixley 59/31/65/35/67 | Tulare 59/30/65/34/66 |
| Woodlake 59/32/65/35/66 | Hanford 59/32/65/36/67 | Orosi 59/31/65/35/66 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly cloudy 39/61 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 35/62 |
Monday
Mostly clear 36/65 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 41/71 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 41/70 |
Two Week Outlook: February 24 through March 2: This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Thursday night will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday afternoon through Saturday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. gusts to around 30 MPH will be possible along the west side.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: As of 6:00am, the coldest reading I could find were 31 at Sanger, Fowler, Lindcove and Lindsay. All other locations were between 32 and 37. The cloud factor will be considerably reduced tonight. it’s possible isolated river bottom and similar locations could drop down to 29 to 30 with most locations between 31 and 36. Minor modification can be expected Friday morning with above freezing conditions Saturday morning. readings in the lower 30 swill again be possible Sunday and Monday mornings as a reinforcing shot of moderately cold air moves down the valley. Expect above freezing temperatures beyond Monday as upper level high pressure results in a warming trend.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/52% Orange Cove, 100%/53%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .63, Parlier .44, Arvin .50, Orange Cove .41, Porterville .NA, Delano .52. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 55, Porterville NA, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 84/29. Average Temperatures: 62/39
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1638. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.5 +3.4 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -1.70 or 75% of average. Month to Date: .29 or -.86
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.01 or 47% of average. Month to date .09 or -.61
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 886, Parlier, 1020, Arvin, 803, Belridge, 937, Shafter, 926, Stratford, 982, Delano, 1048, Porterville, 996
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:43 am Sunset: 5:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:59
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 59 / 49 / 0.01 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 49 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 58 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 46 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1509 / 66 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
Information not available.
Next report: February 17/pm