February 20, 2021
Moderately colder air is sweeping into central California from the northwest behind a cold front currently moving southeastward through the Kern County mountains. At last report, the Tehachapi airport at an elevation of 4,000 feet was reporting mixed rain and snow. The freezing level taken above Vandenberg AFB a few hours ago was 10,300 feet. However, above Oakland, the sounding indicated a freezing level of just 3,600 feet. The northwest push of air is also generating a layer of upslope clouds over much of Kern and Tulare Counties which may last most of the day and possibly even into early Sunday morning.
The parent low is moving rapidly through northern California at this hour and will dive into southern Nevada late this afternoon. The pressure gradient between the north coast and southern Nevada will increase, spawning gusty northwest winds down the valley through this evening.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin to build inland tonight and Sunday. In the meantime, at the surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin Sunday and Monday, generating a moderate off shore flow.
This upcoming week promises to be a tranquil one. A weak weather system will glide through the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday with no impact on valley weather with another similar system Thursday. Some models had hinted at a possible wet pattern for this weekend, however models for six and seven days out are showing a ridge building over the eastern Pacific for a continuation of a dry pattern.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today in Kern and much of Tulare County with partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Mostly clear tonight north of Kern County with partly cloudy skies over Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear Sunday through Wednesday. mostly clear skies will continue Wednesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/32/62/34/68 | Reedley 60/33/63/33/69 | Dinuba 59/31/62/33/68 |
| Porterville 58/32/63/33/70 | Lindsay 59/31/62/33/69 | Delano 58/33/63/35/70 |
| Bakersfield 58/40/65/49/71 | Taft 57/42/62/45/69 | Arvin 58/37/65/36/71 |
| Lamont 58/35/64/37/71 | Pixley 59/32/63/34/70 | Tulare 60/31/62/32/68 |
| Woodlake 60/32/62/33/69 | Hanford 60/33/63/35/70 | Orosi 59/31/63/33/69 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 38/66 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 39/63 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 39/66 |
Friday
Mostly clear 39/65 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 40/70 |
Two Week Outlook: February 24 through March 2: This model puts California under a northwesterly flow aloft during this time frame resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. For now, it appears the storm track will remain north of central California so the chance of precipitation will remain low.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times through early this evening. Gusts exceeding 30 MPH cannot be ruled out from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds will diminish this evening, becoming light to near calm by midnight. Winds Sunday through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, generally during the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: A relatively calmer air mass is now driving into central California. The freezing level plummeted over Oakland from roughly 10,000 feet to 3,600 feet this morning. gusty northwesterly winds will move down the valley today, lowering dew points into generally the low to mid 30s. on the flip side, upslope clouds will continue to regenerate against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. Those clouds may hang in there for much of the night. also, a great deal of wind energy will take place above the valley floor tonight which should add enough mixing to keep temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s. low lying cold spots could drop to 28 to 29 degrees, but that would only be in isolated locations with calm winds and clear skies.
Temperatures Monday morning should be a degree or two warmer at most locations. Rapid daytime warming will occur Sunday and Monday so from Tuesday morning and beyond, look for above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
32 |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 81%/21% Porterville, 96%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .73, Parlier .55, Arvin .59, Orange Cove .50, Porterville .NA, Delano .62. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 80/28. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1686. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 51.9 +2.6 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -1.93 or 73% of average. Month to Date: .29 or -1.09
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.15 or 46% of average. Month to date .09 or -.75
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 913, Parlier, 1050, Arvin, 827, Belridge, 963, Shafter, 951, Stratford, 1010, Delano, 1078, Porterville, 1025
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 5:46 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:04
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 67 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 70 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 70 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON T 6.86 74 5.27 57 9.23 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.37 77 3.92 47 8.32 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.91 77 0.00 0 7.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.19 16 0.00 0 7.52 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 73 0.00 0 7.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 48 0.00 0 6.29 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 46 0.00 0 3.96 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 50 1.16 36 3.24 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.68 57 5.99 73 8.20 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 73 6.61 82 8.11 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 69 4.79 54 8.81 13.95
Next report: February 20/pm