February 26, 2021
Disturbances continue to race from northwest to southeast through the Pacific Northwest and then into the Great Basin around the eastern rim of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific. Yet another one of these features is racing through the Pacific Northwest now and will drive into the Great Basin this evening.
In the meantime, the high over the eastern Pacific will build a ridge northeastward into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This will turn the winds aloft north/northeast over California. By Saturday evening, a strong surface high will develop over the Great Basin, generating a strong off shore surface flow, as well. Gusty north to northwest winds will increase later this afternoon and tonight over the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley and down the west side. Typically, the Sierra Nevada acts as a blockade, keeping the winds from moving into the eastern and southern San Joaquin Valley, south of Fresno County.
Models are still inconsistent on the pattern for Tuesday and beyond of next week. It still appears a trough will drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska with the southern portion pinching off and forming a closed low well off the central coast by Tuesday. The low will weaken and move through southern California Wednesday. the chance of measurable rain for the valley appears to be fairly minimal at this time and mainly from Kern County southward. We may have a better chance of rain the following weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/34/63/32/64 | Reedley 67/34/64/32/66 | Dinuba 66/33/64/31/63 |
| Porterville 68/34/64/32/66 | Lindsay 67/33/64/31/64 | Delano 68/35/64/32/65 |
| Bakersfield 68/41/63/42/68 | Taft 65/45/63/42/64 | Arvin 68/35/63/34/68 |
| Lamont 68/36/64/33/64 | Pixley 67/34/64/31/65 | Tulare 66/33/64/31/63 |
| Woodlake 67/33/64/31/64 | Hanford 67/35/64/32/63 | Orosi 66/33/63/31/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 35/68 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 35/65 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 37/65 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 39/68 |
Friday
Mostly clear 41/71 |
Two Week Outlook: March 5 through March 11: This model is actually depicting a pattern conducive for above average precipitation. A cool northwest flow will prevail during this time frame, keeping temperatures below average.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH today and variable in nature. Late this afternoon and at times through Sunday, winds will be out of the north/northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County north and along the west side. Gusts exceeding 35 MPH cannot be ruled out along the west side Saturday but more especially Sunday. These winds will diminish Sunday night with light winds Monday.
Rain Discussion: The chance of measurable rain over the next week appears to be minimal. Models do show a low pressure system moving across southern California Wednesday and Wednesday night for a chance of light showers, but mainly from Kern County south. There may be a greater opportunity for rain next weekend. We’ll see if models begin to back off on that solution, as well.
Frost Discussion: Low to mid 30s were widespread overnight. Several locations had dropped down to 30 degrees as of 6:00am. A very strong off shore flow will begin to develop later today and will continue into Sunday. Gusty north to northwest winds will move down the west side of the valley. Mixing of the lower layer of the atmosphere will keep temperatures above freezing tonight in all but the coldest frost pockets, which could briefly hit 32 degrees. There is a greater possibility of locations reaching the low 30s Sunday morning and possibly Monday morning.
After Monday, the off shore flow will have ended with milder air moving in aloft. This will begin to pull overnight lows above the freezing mark for the remainder of next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
mcFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 66%/21% Porterville, 82%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .91, Parlier .80, Arvin .88, Orange Cove .80, Porterville .81, Delano .82. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 55, Delano 48.
Record Temperatures: 83/25. Average Temperatures: 64/41
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1761. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.0 +2.0 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -2.37 or 68% of average. Month to Date: .29 or -1.53
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.42 or 43% of average. Month to date .09 or -1.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 953, Parlier, 1100, Arvin, 858, Belridge, 1007, Shafter, 983, Stratford, 1056, Delano, 1127, Porterville, 1076
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:32 am Sunset: 5:52 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:18
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1541 / 63 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.86 70 5.27 54 9.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.38 72 3.92 44 8.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.92 72 M M 8.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 8.0 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 68 M M 7.48 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 45 M M 6.72 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 43 M M 4.23 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 47 1.32 38 3.43 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.73 54 5.99 69 8.74 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.96 68 6.61 76 8.71 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 64 4.79 51 9.48 13.95
Next report: February 26/pm