March 9, 2021
Doppler radar is already picking up on scattered showers as far south as Monterey along the coast. Showers are already spreading into much of northern California. The center of circulation of the parent low is currently along the southern Oregon coast line. The low will slowly drop southward right along the northern California coast over the next 36 hours. Already, much colder air has moved in aloft, as freezing levels certainly tell the story. The freezing level at Vandenburg AFB has dropped to 5,000 feet, 4,000 feet over Oakland, and is now down to 2,700 feet over Medford, Oregon which is closer to the center of circulation.
Showers will begin to spread in from the west later this afternoon. Very active weather can be anticipated tonight through Wednesday evening. Most models place the storm’s center of circulation just to our northwest by midday Wednesday, meaning that pool of very cold, unstable air will be above the valley floor Wednesday after during the time of maximum daytime heating, triggering numerous showers and a probability of isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rain and small hail will be the result.
As the low moves just to our southeast Wednesday night, showers will begin to taper off. However, I still want to keep a chance of scattered activity in the forecast for Thursday as most models place the back side of the storm over central California. I wouldn’t rule out a few isolated showers over the valley floor Thursday afternoon.
By midday Friday, the low will be centered somewhere near Yuma then will move into the Four Corners region Saturday. dry weather will begin Thursday night and will more t han likely last for at least a week or so.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this morning. a chance of showers this afternoon. Periods of rain tonight through late Wednesday evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will become likely Wednesday afternoon and evening with localized heavy rain and small hail. A chance of scattered showers late Wednesday night. a chance of widely scattered showers Wednesday with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. mostly clear Friday afternoon through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/41/56/36/57 | Reedley 62/42/56/37/57 | Dinuba 61/41/56/35/57 |
| Porterville 62/42/57/37/57 | Lindsay 62/41/56/35/57 | Delano 63/42/57/37/58 |
| Bakersfield 63/42/56/39/57 | Taft 58/44/53/40/55 | Arvin 63/43/55/39/56 |
| Lamont 63/43/58/40/56 | Pixley 63/43/57/36/58 | Tulare 61/40/56/35/56 |
| Woodlake 61/41/56/36/57 | Hanford 63/41/57/37/57 | Orosi 61/40/56/35/56 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 34/60 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 36/63 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 39/67 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 40/64 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 39/67 |
Two Week Outlook: March 16 through March 22: This model finds generally a weak zone of high pressure over California and off shore. Temperatures can be expected to be close to seasonal values during this time frame with only a very low chance of precipitation.
March: This model indicates the Pacific Northwest and northern California will have below average temperatures for the month while just the opposite will be true for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Central California is between these two zones, theoretically experiencing near average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: As usual, this model shows California and most of the country with above average temperatures. This same model indicated pretty much the same for the current month of February which will go down as one of the coldest February on record. Precipitation over the next 90 days should run below average.
Winds Discussion: Winds later today through Wednesday will be mainly out of the southeast at around 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds later Wednesday night and Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to15 MPH with stronger gusts, especially near showers. Expect light winds to return Thursday night through Friday.
Rain Discussion: Showers will begin to spread into the valley later this afternoon. Periods of rain will become likely tonight through late Wednesday evening. The chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and evening now appears to be probable as the center of circulation and its cold pool of unstable air will be overhead during the time of maximum daytime heating. Localized heavy rain and small hail will be the result. The activity will become more widely scattered late Wednesday night. I want to keep a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday as the back side of the low will still be overhead. Dry weather will begin Thursday and continue for probably at least a week.
Frost Discussion: Much colder air aloft is already spreading into central California. Freezing levels are already down below 5,000 feet. All locations will be above freezing tonight due to cloud cover and scattered showers. There is a small chance of low lying frost pockets dipping into the lower 30s Thursday morning, but only if skies clear for several hours and winds are calm. Low 30s cannot be ruled out Friday and Saturday mornings as cold air on the valley floor will still be apparent. Most locations, however, will still remain slightly above to above freezing. By Sunday, the strong March sun will warm all locations ot above freezing with above freezing conditions next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 80%/31% Porterville, 88%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .93, Parlier .84, Arvin .96, Orange Cove .84, Porterville .87, Delano .87. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 52, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 58, Delano 50.
Record Temperatures: 86/32. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1891. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 53.97 -0.2 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.11, or -3.15 or 62% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.57
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.81, +or- -2.89 or 39% of average. Month to date .00 or -.34
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 982, Parlier, 1128, Arvin, 882, Belridge, 1029, Shafter, 1008, Stratford, 1082, Delano, 1157, Porterville, 1108
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:16 am Sunset: 6:02 Hours of Daylight: 11:43
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 61 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 61 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 6.92 65 5.43 51 10.65 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.38 66 3.92 40 9.70 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.92 65 0.00 0 9.15 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.19 13 M M 9.01 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.11 62 0.00 0 8.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.05 41 0.00 0 7.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.81 39 0.00 0 4.70 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.61 44 1.32 36 3.70 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.78 49 6.04 63 9.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.98 61 6.64 68 9.78 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.08 57 4.88 46 10.60 13.95
Next report: March 9/pm