November 26, 2017
Summary: Rain has spread over northern California as far south as Santa Cruz along the coast and Modesto inland. The main low center is off the northern California coast and will move inland tonight, driving a cold front through central California and spreading precipitation over the area. The jet stream is flanked from southwest to northeast across northern California and will move southward into our region tonight, enhancing the precipitation, especially along the Sierra Nevada. This will be a fast moving system so significant amounts on the valley floor are not likely with most of the precipitation being north of Kern County.
Showers should reach Fresno by late afternoon then spread southward during the overnight hours, ending by mid morning Monday as the trough moves quickly eastward.
A second system, which is much weaker, will move into northern California Tuesday with virtually no impact on central California. The main focus after Monday will be upslope clouds in the southern and eastern sectors of the valley and how soon they burn off. Areas of low clouds and fog will no doubt form in areas that clear.
By Wednesday night and Thursday, a cut off low will develop off the southern California coast, again too far off shore to impact central California. It appears our next chance of rain will not occur until next Saturday when models show a trough of low pressure digging southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. This may be a bit of a tricky situation as it is possible the southern portion of the trough could pick up that cut off low off the southern California coast and move it inland through southern California just to our south. For now, that’s a small possibility, but one to watch for as we move forward in time.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Periods of rain reaching Fresno by late afternoon, spreading southward tonight with only light showers in Kern County. Showers likely for a time Monday morning then becoming mostly to partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Areas of fog are possible Tuesday morning. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon and night. mostly clear Wednesday through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Friday night leading to a chance of showers Saturday and Saturday night, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Sunday with areas of morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 75/53/63/39/63 | Reedley 77/54/64/40/62 | Dinuba 76/53/63/39/62 | |
| Porterville 77/53/63/41/61 | Lindsay 77/53/63/38/62 | Delano 78/55/63/42/62 | |
| Bakersfield 82/56/65/44/64 | Arvin 81/55/63/45/62 | Taft 79/57/65/48/64 | |
| Lamont 80/56/63/44/62 | Pixley 78/54/64/41/63 | Tulare 77/53/63/41/62 | |
| Woodlake 77/54/63/40/61 | Hanford 77/54/64/40/61 | Orosi 76/53/62/39/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 37/60 |
Thursday
Areas of fog/mostly clear 36/63 |
Friday
Areas of fog/mostly clear 37/66 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 47/68 |
Sunday
Mostly cloudy 39/61 |
Two Week Outlook: December 3 through December 9: The dominant feature on this model is a cold trough of low pressure over the interior west. Most of the energy from this system will be to our east so the chance of rain is low. The dominant flow aloft will be out of the northwest so temperatures should range somewhat below seasonal averages.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH today with gusts to near 25 MPH possible later this afternoon and tonight, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County northward. Later tonight and Monday morning, winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts possible, diminishing Monday evening. Winds Tuesday and Wednesday will be light.
Rain: The chance of rain will increase as far south as Fresno County by late this afternoon or early evening then will spread southward to north of Kern County tonight. Light showers will overspread Kern County. Most of the precipitation should be over by midmorning Monday as the cold front moves through during the early morning hours.
Precipitation amounts from roughly Visalia northward through Madera County should tally up to a quarter of an inch with locally more with a tenth or two down to the Kern County line. For now it appears the valley portion of Kern County will record less than a tenth of an inch.
Dry weather will prevail Monday afternoon through at least Friday night. models show another trough moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California about Saturday which could bring us the next chance of precipitation. To complicate matters a bit, this system could possibly absorb a cut off low off the southern California coast and move it into southern California. But if this occurs at all, it looks like the precipitation would move inland to our south. So for I just see a chance of showers from Fresno County northward during the second half of the weekend.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. The colder air mass will arrive late today and Monday. Mid to upper 30s are possible as early as Tuesday morning in locations that clear and where winds completely die off. Upslope clouds will form behind the exiting system, so no doubt there will be plenty of cloud cover in Kern County and possibly even eastern Tulare County. From Tuesday morning on, mid to upper 30s are certainly possible in colder locales with a chance of low lying spots dipping into the lower 30s. As we have discussed, this is more or less a typical November air mass moving in, so no chance of a significant frost is on the horizon.
Looking ahead, for now there’s no configuration which would indicate a significant frost or freeze event on the horizon.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 40s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/100% Bakersfield, 30%/80%
Actual Humidity November 24, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 24, 2017: Stratford .53, Parlier .41, Blackwell .56, Lindcove .44, Arvin .54, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .41, Delano .NA., Madera Two .43. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 60, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano NA, Madera Two 61
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.2 +5.1
Record Temperatures: 76/27. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 244, -149 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 24, 2017 Fresno: .31 season. or -1.16. Month to Date: .36
Since November 24, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.77, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 58, Parlier, 65, Arvin, 29, Shafter, 74, Stratford, 69, Madera two, 159, Alpaugh, 72, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 44, Porterville, 144. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 75 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 76 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 76 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 77 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 77 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 76 / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 80 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 75 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
MODESTO 0.00 0.72 42 2.55 147 1.73 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.82 46 1.70 94 1.80 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.21 11 1.67 91 1.84 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.31 21 1.28 87 1.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.17 12 0.76 55 1.39 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 4 0.39 49 0.80 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 23 0.09 13 0.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.40 24 1.94 118 1.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.23 16 2.34 164 1.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.05 3 2.01 123 1.64 13.95
Next Report: Monday, November 27/am