Summary: Widespread mid to upper 30s are prevalent throughout the citrus belt this morning with colder locations down to near 30. No doubt there’s a low lying spot or two out there that chilled into the upper 20s. skies were generally clear last night, allowing good radiational cooling and with dew points low enough, fog is somewhat sporadic with the main area of fog being from roughly Madera to Merced.
Weak upper level high pressure is now over California and just off shore. This will keep skies mostly clear through tonight. Some high clouds will begin to show up Wednesday due to a weak weather system moving through the Pacific Northwest. This system will eventually slide through central California later Wednesday with the southern portion pinching off and forming an upper low west of northern Baja Thursday. This will have no impact on central California, so overall a zone of high pressure will stretch from the eastern Pacific across California through Friday night.
As per usual this time of year, the main challenge will be later night and morning fog and low clouds.
Models for the weekend and early next week are in agreement on one thing. A low pressure system will drop southward into California. Where models disagree is on timing and strength of this system. Models vary from precipitation reaching the valley Saturday while others say Sunday or Sunday night. models also vary on the intensity of this storm, ranging from just a chance of showers to a full blown winter system. For now, we’ll go with an increasing chance of rain, especially for Sunday into Monday.
Behind this system will be a north to northwest flow which will move colder air down the valley once again. We could see mid to upper 50s for highs beginning Monday but fortunately it doesn’t appear to be a true freeze configuration, so overnight lows will continue to be safe.
Forecast: Patchy fog, otherwise hazy sunshine today. Mostly clear tonight with areas of fog developing during the early morning hours, mainly north of Kern County. Areas of fog and low clouds, mainly up the center of the valley each morning through Friday with hazy sunshine and occasional high clouds. Partly cloudy Friday night. mostly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night with a slight chance of showers. An increasing chance of rain Sunday into Monday. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday with areas of fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/32/63/32/65 | Reedley 62/34/63/35/66 | Dinuba 61/34/63/34/65 | |
| Porterville 63/34/63/34/66 | Lindsay 62/32/63/33/66 | Delano 63/37/63/37/67 | |
| Bakersfield 63/40/64/43/67 | Arvin 62/37/64/38/67 | Taft 63/42/64/44/67 | |
| Lamont 63/38/64/38/67 | Pixley 62/35/63/36/66 | Tulare 61/33/63/35/65 | |
| Woodlake 62/34/63/35/66 | Hanford 62/34/63/35/66 | Orosi 61/32/63/38/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Areas of fog/hazy sun 37/64 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 43/65 |
Sunday
Rain likely 48/62 |
Monday
Showers likely 40/58 |
Tuesday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 35/56 |
Two Week Outlook: December 4 through December 10: The dominant feature on this model is a cold trough of low pressure over the interior west. Most of the energy from this system will be to our east so the chance of rain is low. The dominant flow aloft will be out of the northwest so temperatures should range somewhat below seasonal averages.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Friday night and possibly Saturday. There are varying model solutions on a Pacific storm which will be strengthening off the northern California coast Friday night and Saturday. Some models show precipitation moving into the valley as early as late Saturday while others are showing late Sunday night and Monday.
Models also vary on the potential intensity of this system, ranging from just a chance of showers to possibly a full blown winter storm. My feeling is the precipitation will probably hold off through Sunday, but I’ll put a slight chance of showers in the forecast for late Saturday and Saturday night with active weather through Monday morning.
Beyond Monday, for now models are showing dry conditions as high pressure builds in from the west.
Frost: Thirties were widespread last night with no doubt a few river bottom and like locations dipping into the upper 20s. Tonight and each night through Friday morning will be similar with widespread mid to upper 30s and lower 30s in coldest locations. There are some high clouds off shore which may enter into the picture from Wednesday morning on. But for now, I’m betting they’ll be too sparse to have much of an impact.
Over the weekend, a Pacific storm will increase cloud cover and generate a southerly flow ahead of the low for above freezing conditions through at least Monday morning. Models do show a shot of cold air wrapping around the back side of the exiting low which could cause temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s beginning Thursday. This pattern varies from model to model but for now it does not appear that any concerning temperatures will have to be dealt with.
Medium range models for the middle of next week and beyond are not showing a freeze type pattern.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, upper 30s to the lower 40s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 55%/100% Bakersfield, 50%/85%
Actual Humidity November 26, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 26, 2017: Stratford .52, Parlier .41, Blackwell .55, Lindcove .44, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .42, Delano .NA., Madera Two .41. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 60, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano NA, Madera Two 61
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.6 +5.9
Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 248, -179 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 26, 2017 Fresno: .32 season. or -1.23. Month to Date: .37
Since November 26, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.81, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 58, Parlier, 65, Arvin, 29, Shafter, 78, Stratford, 69, Madera two, 168, Alpaugh, 105, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 44, Porterville, 151. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:50 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:53
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 47 / 0.11 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 49 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 51 / 0.20 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.06 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 53 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 50 / 0.06 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 60 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 61 / 50 / 0.03 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 58 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 49 / 0.01
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.11 0.91 39 4.03 173 2.33 14.06
MODESTO 0.19 0.98 52 2.97 158 1.88 13.11
MERCED 0.17 1.03 54 2.32 123 1.89 12.50
MADERA 0.03 0.32 17 2.20 114 1.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.05 0.37 23 2.05 129 1.59 11.50
HANFORD 0.20 0.37 26 1.00 69 1.44 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 0.03 3 0.62 71 0.87 6.47
BISHOP T 0.16 21 0.09 12 0.76 5.18
SALINAS 0.34 0.75 41 2.56 141 1.81 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 0.25 16 2.65 172 1.54 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 0.09 5 2.58 145 1.78 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, November 28/pm