July 25, 2021
A massive area of upper level high pressure stretches from California on the west to roughly the Mississippi River on the east. Embedded within this high is a weak upper low which is currently straddling the Mexico/California border. The low has picked up a great deal of monsoonal moisture and will soon begin to transport that moisture north/northwest, straddling the California coast. This will make for some rather interesting possibilities, especially Monday and Monday night. most models give this system enough convection over the valley floor for a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The activity over the Sierra Nevada will be more numerous. If there are breaks in the cloud deck, daytime heating would have a better chance of becoming a player, possibly producing heavy thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains and deserts. Rainfall on the valley floor could potentially range from no measurable rain to as much as a tenth of an inch. There’s also that slight possibility of a slow moving thunderstorm dumping as much as .25.
The low will stretch out right off shore, eventually moving far enough to the north to take the chance of measurable precipitation out of the forecast. Models, however, do indicate periods of monsoonal moisture working they’re way south/southeast to north/northwest during the later part of the workweek and into the coming weekend. However, considering this has been an early and very active monsoon season, don’t be totally shocked if amendments have to be made next week.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness tonight with a slight chance of sprinkles. Variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday morning. partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday night variable cloudiness Friday through Saturday with a slight chance of sprinkles. Partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday.
Short Term: Highs today will range between 99 and 104. Lows will cool into the upper 60s to the mid 70s. highs Monday will warm into the low to mid 90s. lows Monday night will cool into the upper 60s to the mid 70s. Highs Tuesday will range between 99 and 104.
Next report: July 26/am