October 19, 2021
A very active pattern remains over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Yesterday’s system, which dropped just under .10 at most locations, has now raced eastward and is moving into Colorado. Satellite imagery is clearly depicting a wide swath of cloud cover over the eastern Pacific which is now spreading into northern California. Cloud cover will increase over central California tonight. With this system, models indicate the rain will fall no further south than a Monterey/Merced line with more snow over the Sierra from Yosemite north.
Weak high pressure will fill in from the west late Wednesday night and Thursday for a temporary warming trend. However, as this latest system goes through, a cooler air mass will follow with below average temperatures as we head into the weekend.
Over the weekend, a powerful low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will dig southward all the way into southern California. Much needed rain will be likely over all of California Sunday and Monday. Models portray this system as a major winter storm event with possibly as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain along the Sierra Nevada. Some models show the jet stream racing inland perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada. This is a perfect scenario for heavy precipitation. Some of these same models also indicate the possibility of an atmospheric river moving into California Monday. Instability showers will follow Tuesday. A flat zone of upper level high pressure will then develop over the eastern Pacific ocean, driving the storm track back into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today. Variable cloudiness tonight and Wednesday. Variable cloudiness at times Wednesday night through Saturday. There will be a slight chance of showers from generally Fresno County north Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Saturday. Mostly cloudy Saturday night with an increasing chance of rain Sunday. Rain becoming likely Sunday night through Monday night. A chance of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/42/74/49/78 | Reedley 71/43/73/50/78 | Dinuba 71/41/74/48/78 |
| Porterville 72/41/75/49/78 | Lindsay 71/41/75/49/78 | Delano 72/45/74/49/79 |
| Bakersfield 71/51/75/54/78 | Taft 70/52/74/58/77 | Arvin 72/45/74/51/77 |
| Lamont 71/45/74/51/78 | Pixley 70/44/74/49/78 | Tulare 71/45/74/48/78 |
| Woodlake 70/41/73/47/77 | Hanford 70/44/74/49/78 | Orosi 72/42/74/47/77 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Slight chance of showers 55/77 |
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 52/76 |
Sunday
PM rain likely 50/68 |
Monday
Rain likely 51/69 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 45/66 |
Two Week Outlook: October 26 through November 1; This model is showing a moist westerly flow moving across the eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest and much of northern and central California. This model is indicating there’s a 60 percent of above average precipitation with below average temperatures.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be light and variable today then will be mainly out of the southeast tonight and Wednesday at 5 to 12 MPH. winds Thursday through Friday will be at or less than 12 MPH. Models continue to indicate there will be a considerable difference in pressure between northern and central California for the possibility of strong, gusty winds late Sunday and Monday.
Rain: A very active pattern continues over the eastern Pacific. One system will sweep into northern California tonight and Wednesday with showers possibly down to a Monterey/Merced line. For now, it appears the rest of the valley will remain dry. The next system will follow a similar path Friday night into early Saturday. For now,, it looks like there’s a chance of showers down to Fresno County, but any amounts will be light. The main event of this pattern will occur Sunday and Monday as intense storms stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to southern California. Impressive amounts of rain will fall up and down the Sierra Nevada. Some models show as much as an inch of rain on the valley floor north of Kern County. We’ll be on the back side of the low Tuesday for a good chance of showers followed by several days of dry weather.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/17% Porterville, 63%/17`%, Dew Points: Hanford, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 1.75, Parlier 1.59, Arvin 1.81, Orange Cove 1.74, Porterville 1.62, Delano 1.53. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 76, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove NA, Porterville NA, Delano 72.
Record Temperatures: 108/49. Average Temperatures: 93/65
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1704 +370 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 78.6 +1.1 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.35 or 60% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season,T yesterday, 2.77, +or- -3.35 or 44% of average. Month to date .T or -.-00
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, , Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:37 am Sunset: 7:42 Hours of Daylight: 12:41
Yesterday’s Weather
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 104 / 65 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 105 / 65 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 106 / 74 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 105 / 67 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 107 / 66 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 103 / 78 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 103 / 67 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 103 / 69 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 62 13.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 58 6.94 57 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 9999 92928 0.00 0 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 60 0.00 0 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 53 0.00 0 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.69 36 2.25 47 4.74 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 5.79 46 9.18 73 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.47 95 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.88 52 10.66 80 13.26 13.32
Next report: October 20