January 2, 2022
Definitely a chilly night, as expected, with widespread upper 20s and lower 30s. considering the amount of rain we’ve received over the past few weeks, the air mass on the valley floor is fairly dry due to a weather system which moved through the Great Basin day before yesterday. The air aloft has warmed considerably. The freezing level this morning over Vandenberg was 10,300 feet compared to the level yesterday at this time when the level was 4,500 feet. Still, this time of year with short days and a low sun angle can make it difficult to remove a particular air mass.
In the big picture, upper level high pressure is now governing the western 1/3 of the US while arctic air plunges southward into the middle of the country. A weak trough of low pressure will unsuccessfully move through the high Tuesday. It will spread light precipitation down to a Bay Area/Sacramento line. The high will regenerate Wednesday through Thursday night then yet another trough will try to penetrate the high. Like its predecessor, though, it will have difficulty moving southward. It’s possible a few light showers could reach as far south as Fresno County Friday, but for now we must file this one in the small chance category.
Medium range models indicate we will move back into the blocking ridge pattern with the storm track moving back into the Pacific Northwest with California remaining dry under that dome of high pressure. Polar air masses will continue to affect the nation’s midsection and points eastward.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night with patchy morning fog. Mostly clear Wednesday through Thursday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Variable cloudiness Friday through Sunday with patchy night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/30/55/31/55 | Reedley 54/30/54/31/55 | Dinuba 54/29/55/30/55 |
| Porterville 55/29/56/31/56 | Lindsay 54/28/55/29/56 | Delano 55/30/53/31/56 |
| Bakersfield 56/33/56/35/56 | Taft 55/40/54/43/55 | Arvin 56/33/53/35/57 |
| Lamont 54/32/55/35/56 | Pixley 55/30/56/31/56 | Tulare 53/28/54/30/57 |
| Woodlake 54/29/55/31/56 | Hanford 55/30/55/32/56 | Orosi 54/28/53/31/56 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 35/57 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 37/55
|
Friday
Variable clouds 40/57 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 40/57 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 36/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 7 through January 13: This model has reverted to a dry forecast with above average temperatures.
January: This model doesn’t really indicate a trend that would favor above or below precipitation. The active storm track in the Pacific Northwest will continue. Both temperatures and precipitation should be close to seasonal averages.
January, February, March: The trend of below average temperatures of late continues on the 90 day forecast which indicates temperatures will be slightly below average. Below average precipitation is anticipated over the Desert Southwest and the southern half of California with near average precipitation from Fresno County north.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.
Rain: There is a small chance of a few light showers from mainly Fresno County north Friday and Friday night. However, models are tracking the possible rain line a bit further north. Outside of that, we’ll go with a dry forecast for the next week to ten days.
Frost: Both Lindsay and Porterville dipped down to 27 last night for the cold spots. All other locations were in the upper 20s and lower 30s. high resolution short term modeling indicate dew points this afternoon will range in the mid to upper 30s, meaning the valley floor’s air is relatively dry. This will allow another night of upper 20s and lower 30s with isolated river bottom unprotected locations possibly dipping into the mid 20s. warmer air is moving in above the valley floor as freezing levels have jumped up to 10,000 feet. A weak weather system will try to move in here unsuccessfully Tuesday. However, dew points currently in the mid to upper 30s should rise into the 40s, meaning a slow moderation in overnight low temperatures will begin Tuesday morning. Readings will stay above freezing for Wednesday and beyond as mild air aloft slowly mixes down to the surface. Temperatures tonight at 34 feet should be anywhere from 5 to 8 degrees warmer under a nice warm air inversion,
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
Mcfarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/60% Porterville, 100%/63%. Dew points: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .24, Parlier .19, Arvin .20, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .18, Delano .18. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 53, Parlier 49, Arvin, .52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 48, Delano 43. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/36. Record Temperatures: 70/20
Heating Degree Days This Season. 978 -70 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or +1.92. Monthly .00 -.07
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.55 or +1.62. Month to date .00 -.04
Average Temperature this month: 41.5, -4.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: CHILLING HOUR DATA IS FIVE DAYS OLD. Orange Cove, 312, Parlier, 406 , Arvin, 388, Belridge, 419 ,Shafter, 394 , Stratford, 449 , Delano, 409 , Porterville, 428 `
Sunrise. 7:12, Sunset, 4:55, hours of daylight, 9:43
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 50 / 31 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 52 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 53 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 53 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 53 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 52 / 31 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : M / M / M /
- Rainfall Stats: 24h season % l year % ave. ave. year
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 179 1.93 42 4.58 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 208 1.54 39 3.91 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.79 159 2.28 63 3.64 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 0.77 24 3.25 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 158 1.42 43 3.29 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.60 184 0.67 27 2.50 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.55 184 0.74 38 1.93 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 331 0.21 15 1.36 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 150 0.94 23 4.06 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.12 203 0.99 28 3.50 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.09 160 1.77 47 3.80 13.32
Next report: January 2 pm