February 1, 2022
Upslope clouds are rapidly developing in the southern and eastern sectors of the valley this morning. The base of the overcast at Visalia was 4,700 feet. The freezing level over Vandenberg was 9,100 feet while above Oakland the freezing level was 6,600 feet. Each of these locations had freezing levels above 10,000 feet 24 hours ago. These changes are being brought on by a trough of low pressure which is currently stretched from the Great Basin to another low located off the southern California coast. Further out to sea, we have a strong high building northward into the Gulf of Alaska. The flow between the low over the interior west and the off shore high will become north/northeast, ideal for spreading a cooler air mass into California. The trick to the forecast is to try to determine whether the drier air aloft will mix down to the surface, dissipating the low cloud deck currently in place. If this happens, widespread frost will occur. However, if the low clouds remain locked in, readings will remain in the 30s. the high off shore will begin to build inland late Wednesday and will dominate our pattern through the weekend. It will be cooler today through Friday. Gusty winds will increase along the west side this afternoon as pressure differences increase between the off shore high and falling pressure over the Desert Southwest. Models for this weekend and beyond show variations of the same old thing…a mass of upper high over the Pacific with occasional bouts of low pressure moving through the interior west. This pattern offers little chance of precipitation with daytime highs warming to well above average. With generally clear skies and lowering dewpoints, overnight lows will fall to below average
Forecast: Mostly cloudy in the southern and eastern portions of the valley this morning. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. Mostly clear Wednesday and on through Tuesday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/30/57/30/60 | Reedley 55/30/56/39/61 | Dinuba 55/29/57/30/60 |
| Porterville 55/29/57/29/59 | Lindsay57/28/57/28/61 | Delano 57/31/57/32/61 |
| Bakersfield 55/35/56/34/61 | Taft 54/37/54/37/57 | Arvin 56/32/56/31/61 |
| Lamont 55/31/55/30/60 | Pixley 57/29//57/28/58 | Tulare 55/28/57/28/61 |
| Woodlake 57/30/57/29/60 | Hanford 56/30/56/30/61 | Orosi 57/31/57/29/61 |
Seven Forecast
| Friday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 31/63 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/64 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/65 |
Monday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/67 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/68 |
Two Week Outlook: February 8 through February 14: this time around, this model is reverting back to the same old thing. A large ridge of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the US, meaning the chance of rain will be very low with above average temperatures.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatufes during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds this morning will be light then will be out of the northwest this afternoon at 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to near 30 MPH possible, mainly along the west side and from roughly Madera County north. Winds will continue to be mainly out of the northwest this evening at 5 to 12 MPH but with gusts to 25 MPH possible along the west side and local elsewhere. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Over the past couple of hours, upslope clouds have rapidly developed, banking against the southern Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. These clouds will likely dissipate this afternoon and tonight as colder, drier air mixes down. Tonight will be one of those chaotic nights where potential cloud cover, wind conditions, and mixing take place. Gusty north to northwest winds will blow down the west side, eventually lowering dew points down into the 30s, possibly the mid to upper 20s along the west side. All this means the potential for river bottom and similar locations could drop into the 26 to 28 degree range with most locations ranging from 28 to 32. Where cloud cover or wind conditions take place, readings will remain in the 30s. for Thursday and Friday, the potential for readings in the 26 to 27 degree range will be higher as by then the atmosphere will have settled down and cloud cover will have mixed out. Over the weekend, daytime highs will begin to recover into the 60s, however a dry air mass will be in place on the valley floor, allowing for good radiational cooling with readings generally in the low to mid 30s Saturday through Monday.
The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures 2 to 5 degrees warmer at most locations.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North bakerssfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/51% Porterville, 100%/53%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 50%/. Tomorrow, 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .50, Arvin 71, Orange Cove .49, Porterville .46, Delano .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 49, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 48, Delano 44. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 58/39. Record Temperatures: 73/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1454 -121, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or -.17. Monthly .T -2.16
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.56 or +.48. Month to date .01 -1.18
Average Temperature this month: 48.1, +1.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 706, Parlier, 824, Arvin, 689, Belridge, 762, Shafter, 737, Stratford, 837, Delano, 815, Porterville, 839 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 7:00, Sunset, 5:26, hours of daylight, 10:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
CLIMATE STATION TOTAL 2022 PON 2021 PON NORMAL NORMAL
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 115 5.90 82 7.17 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 127 5.44 85 6.40 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.85 98 5.61 94 5.94 11.80
MADERA 0.00 9999190095 1.05 20 5.26 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 97 4.82 90 5.38 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.61 115 3.03 76 4.00 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.56 116 1.72 56 3.08 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 183 1.30 53 2.46 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 92 4.40 67 6.61 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.34 119 5.93 96 6.15 12.15
SANTA MARIA Next report: February 1 PM