March 2, 2022
One more day of unusually warm weather as the upper high begins to shift eastward. Warmest locations this afternoon may hit the 80 degree mark for the first time this spring season. The first of two weather systems will arrive Thursday night and Friday. The first trough of low pressure has subtropical moisture involved and will morph into a closed low as it moves across southcentral California Friday. Showers may reach into the valley as early as Thursday evening. However, later Thursday night and Friday now seems to be the best target time.
Just as soon as this low shifts into the desert southwest, a colder low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern California Friday night and central California Saturday. A pool of cold, unstable air will be above the valley floor Saturday afternoon. the daytime heating effect, assuming there are breaks in the overcast, may set off isolated thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail Saturday afternoon. Showers will continue through Saturday night but should end by Sunday morning as this system shifts eastward.
The general pattern through midweek will be a large high over the eastern Pacific with a ridge into Alaska and northwest Canada. Disturbances will ride south/southeast into the western US. The next one to arrive will move more into the interior as opposed to California Wednesday. So, it looks like the precipitation over the weekend will be the last we’ll see for awhile. In the meantime, temperatures will nosedive this weekend, dropping into the mid to upper 50s by Sunday from the near 80 degree weather we will have this afternoon.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through tonight. Increasing cloudiness Thursday. Periods of showers Thursday night and at times through Saturday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 79/42/72/45/59 | Reedley 79/42/75/44/60 | Dinuba 77/41/73/44/58 |
| Porterville 80/42/74/44/60 | Lindsay 79/42/73/43/60 | Delano 80/44/74/45/60 |
| Bakersfield 80/51/76/48/61 | Taft 78/56/74/51/58 | Arvin 80/44/75/45/61 |
| Lamont 80/45/75/45/61 | Pixley 79/44/74/45/59 | Tulare 78/43/72/42/58 |
| Woodlake 78/41/73/44/59 | Hanford 78/44/73/45/59 | Orosi 78/42/74/44/58 |
Seven Forecast
| Saturday
Light showers 38/59 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 33/54 |
Monday
Mostly clear 32/58 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 34/62 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 34/65 |
Two Week Outlook: March 7 through March 13: This model still shows a significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast with the flow aloft out of the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in below average temperatures. Most of the active weather will be over the interior west, so expect below average precipitation.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be light and variable today and tonight. Winds Thursday through Saturday will periodically be out of the southwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: It will be Thursday evening before showers begin to move in from the west as the first of two systems moves into central California. The first system will close off into its own low pressure system and will cross central Californian late Thursday night and Friday with widespread shower activity. The second colder low will drop into northern California late Friday night and into central California Saturday and Saturday night for another round of showers. For now it appears the pool of cold, unstable air will be above the valley floor Saturday afternoon. If we have some breaks in the overcast, daytime heating may be enough to destabilize the atmosphere for isolated thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail. This system will be far enough to the east by Sunday morning to take rain out of the forecast.
It now appears next week will be dry as the next system tracks into the interior west Wednesday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Saturday morning. As we’ve been discussing, a much colder air mass will dive southward into California, wrapping around a cold low which will be over us Saturday. Beginning Sunday morning, readings will fall into the 30s. On Sunday morning, cloud cover will no doubt keep most locations at least into the low to mid 30s. A few locations from Fresno County north could dip into the upper 20s if skies clear and winds die off. On Monday and Tuesday, widespread low to mid 30s can be expected with coldest, unprotected low lying regions possibly dropping into the upper 20s
Minor modification will begin Wednesday and accelerate Thursday and Friday.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 81%/25% Porterville, 98%/29%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 60%/. Tomorrow, 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .81, Parlier .74, Arvin .80, Orange Cove .73, Porterville .70, Delano .77. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 51, Parlier 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 53, Delano 51. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 65/43. Record Temperatures: 82/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1885 -112, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.25 or -2.13. Monthly .00 -.07
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.67 or -.63. Monthly, .00 -.04
Average Temperature this month: 56.0 +2.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:27, Sunset, 5:55, hours of daylight, 11:27
Yesterday’s weather:
CE : Merced AP 153 : 78 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 77 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 78 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 73 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 84 6.86 70 9.74 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.16 94 6.38 73 8.69 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.87 71 5.92 72 8.21 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 7.32 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.25 71 5.11 69 7.38 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.78 87 3.05 56 5.49 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.67 85 1.81 42 4.30 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 134 1.61 48 3.37 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.18 68 4.73 52 9.11 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 85 5.96 68 8.72 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.33 67 6.08 65 9.39 13.32
Next report: March 2 PM