March 22, 2022
Strong upper level high pressure is located roughly 500 miles off the central coast and has expanded well east over the western ¼ of the US. Temperatures have taken a big jump today and are running 8 to 10 degrees over yesterday at this time with temperatures already in the mid to upper 70s at midday. We’ll no doubt see some records fall Wednesday and Thursday as widespread mid to upper 80s will occur. A 90 degree or two cannot be ruled out. Even with the northern portion of the high breaking down late Thursday through Saturday, temperatures will remain in the 80s through Sunday and possibly Monday. models this afternoon appear to be developing a new trend. The southern flank of a trough of low pressure is projected to form a new low off the central coast. It will swing inland through central and southern California Monday. one model places the center of circulation near Kern County Monday evening. If this comes about, springtime isolated thunderstorms will be possible. I’m still looking at Monday as the most likely date for rain, although it may last into Tuesday. Medium range models show a much weaker trough moving through next Thursday and Friday, but with no precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely Monday and Monday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. A chance of showers Tuesday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon.
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Short Term:
| Madera 45/87/49/88 | Reedley 46/88/49/88 | Dinuba 45/86/48/87 |
| Porterville 45/88/50/89 | Lindsay 44/86/48/88 | Delano 49/89/50/90 |
| Bakersfield 57/88/59/90 | Taft 61/86/62/85 | Arvin 51/89/51/90 |
| Lamont 51/89/52/90 | Pixley 47/87/48/86 | Tulare 45/86/48/87 |
| Woodlake 46/87/49/88 | Hanford 47/87/50/88 | Orosi 45/86/48/87 |
Wind Discussion: Winds through Friday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at around 5 to12 mph. during the night and morning, winds will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather more than likely through Sunday. Monday appears to be the likely date for rain. A rather complex pattern is developing as the bottom portion of a trough of low pressure forms a new low just off the central coast. It will move inland Monday through Monday night. The GFS model places the center of circulation over Kern County Monday evening, meaning it’s possible the most unstable portion of this system will be overhead during the afternoon and evening hours. Theoretically, this could allow isolated thunderstorms to form. Models are still all over the place on timing and potential precipitation amounts but with a little bit of luck, perhaps a few locations could squeeze out a quarter of an inch or so.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and for at least the next week.
Next report: March 23