December 14, 2017
Summary: A strong warm air inversion remains over the valley this morning under a strong ridge of upper level high pressure. To give you an idea of the temperature differences, as of 6:00 am it was 54 degrees up at Frazier Park while many locations on the valley floor are in the mid 20s to the lower 30s. there will be a minor change in the overall pattern coming up Friday night and Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure will manage to break through the high, possibly giving us some cloud cover later Friday night and Saturday. It may be enough to break up the inversion. One model indicates temperatures between 4,000 and 6,000 feet will be as much as 20 degrees cooler late Friday night.
There is a dark side to this, however. As we head into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings of next week, a strong northeast flow aloft will develop, possibly driving some dry and cold air into the valley which could possibly drop temperatures a few degrees colder than they have been running. This means protection might be needed early to mid week next week.
Nothing but upper level high pressure stretches out through the 21st. I’m looking at medium range outlooks from the 23rd through Christmas Day and the pattern setting up is one that could result in a cold Christmas. A big high is projected to build into western Canada almost to the Arctic Circle. Potentially very cold air would drop into the western United States. If models for the 23rd through the 28th were occurring today, we would be looking at a potentially dangerous freeze.
We have a long time between now and then but nevertheless, models the past couple of days have been suggesting this.
Forecast: Clear skies through Friday. mostly clear to partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Thursday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/28/66/28/63 | Reedley 64/28/66/30/63 | Dinuba 63/27/65/28/62 | |
| Porterville 65/28/67/31/63 | Lindsay 65/27/66/29/62 | Delano 66/29/69/32/63 | |
| Bakersfield 67/37/71/37/62 | Arvin 63/31/71/37/64 | Taft 68/40/71/44/61 | |
| Lamont 68/33/70/37/62 | Pixley 66/28/67/31/63 | Tulare 63/27/66/31/64 | |
| Woodlake 65/28/66/31/62 | Hanford 65/28/67/33/63 | Orosi 64/27/65/28/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 29/52 |
Monday
Mostly clear 27/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 28/65 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 29/66 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/65 |
Two Week Outlook: December 20 through December 26: There’s really no change to speak of. A big ridge will continue to be over the west with a big trough east of the Rockies. With this pattern in place, there will be limited opportunities for rain with above average daytime highs and subfreezing overnight lows.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Temperatures this morning are again running in the mid to upper 20s as of 6:00am with generally low to mid 30s in Kern County. Lows tonight at the coldest, unprotected locations will drop to between 25 and 27 with most other locations between 27 and 31. Kern County will be the exception with temperatures in the low to mid 30s, although there could be isolated pockets of upper 20s.
The inversion tonight will be solid with temperatures at 34 feet anywhere from 5 to 9 degrees warmer.
Late Friday night, a weak trough of low pressure will briefly break through the high. This may throw enough cloud cover over the area later Friday night for some modification. This same system has the potential of shattering the inversion with cold, dry air diving into the region from the northern Rockies. This could lead to some chilly nights Monday through Wednesday of next week. For now, we’ll just go with mid to upper 20s and see where dew points end up Saturday night.
Models in one way, shape, or form have been suggesting a cold weather episode from the 23 through at least Christmas Day. If most of these models are correct, we would see low to mid 20s at the very least on the 24 and 25. Today is only the 14th…my wife’s birthday, by the way…so there’s plenty of time between now and then for models to do some kind of about face, which is certainly possible. But over the past couple of days, they seem to favor a cold pattern ahead.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
34 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Bakersfield, low to mid 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 35%/95% Bakersfield, 30%/55%
Actual Humidity December 12, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 12, 2017: Stratford .44, Parlier .38, Blackwell, .52 Lindcove .43, Arvin .50, Orange Cove .44, Porterville .37, Delano .NA., Madera Two .36. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 50, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 50, Delano NA, Madera Two 52
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 47.3 +1.8
Record Temperatures: 72/23. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 513, -217 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since December 12, 2017 Fresno: .37 season. or -1.89. Month to Date: T
Since December 12, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -1.25, Month to Date: ..00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 251, Parlier, 270, Arvin, 209, Shafter, 306, Stratford, 271, Madera two, 412, Alpaugh, 283, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 241, Porterville, 391. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04 am Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 28 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 30 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 66 / 31 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1558 / 65 / 31 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 32 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.91 27 4.66 140 3.34 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 35 3.65 131 2.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.03 42 3.08 127 2.43 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.32 13 2.67 105 2.55 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.37 16 2.46 106 2.31 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.37 20 1.09 59 1.85 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 2 0.66 50 1.31 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 15 0.09 8 1.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.75 28 3.00 111 2.71 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.25 11 2.68 115 2.33 12.78
STOCKTON 0.00 0.91 27 4.66 140 3.34 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 35 3.65 131 2.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.03 42 3.08 127 2.43 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.32 13 2.67 105 2.55 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.37 16 2.46 106 2.31 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.37 20 1.09 59 1.85 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 2 0.66 50 1.31 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 15 0.09 8 1.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.75 28 3.00 111 2.71 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.25 11 2.68 115 2.33 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.09 3 3.09 115 2.69 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, December 14/pm