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Forecast

May 7, 2022/report

Trudy Hibler

May 7, 2022

At the upper levels of the atmosphere, a mammoth trough of low pressure is digging slowly southward into California. At the surface, a deep area of low pressure is setting up shop over southern Nevada. The current altimeter reading at San Francisco is 30.09 inches of mercury while at Las Vegas the reading is 29.62. That difference in pressure is already spawning gusty winds over much of the valley. As of 6:00am, winds at Fresno were gusting to 25 mph and 23 mph at Madera. Areas of blowing dust with wind gusts to near 30 mph will be possible for the next few days. In the meantime, back to the upper levels of the atmosphere…A deep but moisture starved low will form off the northwest California coast Monday and Monday night, dropping southward along the central coast Tuesday and Wednesday. Light snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada Monday and Tuesday, possibly as low as 3,000 to 4,000 feet. There may be enough dynamics for scattered light showers over the valley floor, especially Wednesday when the upper low is projected to be just to our west. Along with all this will be drastically cooler temperatures as coldest readings Monday through Thursday if we have clear skies will drop into the mid to upper 30s with a river bottom or two possibly brushing with the lower 30s. by Friday, the trough will begin pulling off into the interior west, allowing upper level high pressure to begin to build in for a significant warming trend next weekend.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. Variable cloudiness at times Monday through Thursday. There will be a small chance of scattered light showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night with the greatest risk being near the Sierra Nevada foothills Wednesday afternoon and evening. Mostly clear skies will return Friday through Saturday with a warming trend.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 79/44/70/37/68 Reedley 80/45/71/38/68 Dinuba 79/43/70/37/67
Porterville 81/43/71/41/69 Lindsay 80/43/70/37/67 Delano 81/48/71/41/69
Bakersfield 81/52/71/44/67 Taft 78/51/69/45/65 Arvin 82/45/71/43/68
Lamont 81/47/71/43/69 Pixley 79/43/71/38/68 Tulare 78/43/71/36/67
Woodlake 80/47/71/40/69 Hanford 81/46/71/41/69 Orosi 79/44/71/36/67

 

Seven Day Forecast

Tuesday

Variable clouds

38/68

 Wednesday

Chance of showers

39/68

 Thursday

Partly cloudy

42/69

 Friday

Mostly clear

45/77

 Saturday

Mostly clear

50/82

 

                               

Two Week Outlook:  May 14 through May 20: This model is indicating a ridge of high pressure will govern the weather during this time frame, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures with generally dry conditions prevailing.

 

May:  This model shows a dominant high stretching from Texas to southern California, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures for the month. It also gives an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation.

 

May, June, July: This model shows an early season high over the Four Corners region of the desert southwest, stretching westward to California, causing temperatures as we head into summer to be marginally above average. Since this is the dry season, the chances of precipitation will be very low

 

Wind Discussion: There will be periods of northwesterly winds at 10 to 20 mph through Tuesday. Local gusts to 30 mph are possible, especially during the afternoon to the late evening hours with local areas of blowing dust.

 

Rain:  A pool of cold, unstable air will drop southward right along the central coast Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Light snow showers will be likely along the Sierra Nevada down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. This is a moisture starved event. Even so, dynamics may be strong enough for a scattered chance of light showers over the valley floor Tuesday night through Wednesday night. If this occurs, most locations will record generally less than .10. Greatest risk will be along the Sierra Nevada foothills. Dry weather will return by Friday with a prolonged period of dry weather to follow.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 79%/23%  Porterville, 91%/20%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Mid to upper 30s. Upper Mid to upper 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 80%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.97, Parlier 1.70, Arvin 1.86, Orange Cove 1.81, Porterville 1.66, Delano 1.64. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 60, Parlier 68, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 75, Delano 68. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 80/53.  Record Temperatures: 103/36

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  71 +8. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.29 or -4.06.  Monthly  .00 -.10

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.40 or  -.67.  Monthly,  .00 -.06

Average Temperature this month: 68.1 +1.8 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier,  Arvin, Belridge, 1016, Shafter,  Stratford, Delano, Porterville.  Courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 5:58, Sunset, 7:54, hours of daylight, 13:54

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  84 /  56 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  86 /  57 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  86 /  60 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  86 /  59 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  86 /  58 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  83 /  61 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  85 /  59 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  85 /  59 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                   24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

  1. STOCKTON           00    9.75    76    7.88    61    12.82    13.45
  2. MODESTO 00    8.99    78    7.12    62    11.54    12.27
  3. MERCED 00    7.44    66    7.00    62    11.22    11.80
  4. MADERA 00       M     M       M     M    10.22    10.79
  5. FRESNO 00    6.29    61    6.59    64    10.35    10.99
  6. HANFORD 00    6.34    82    4.29    55     7.73     8.13
  7. BAKERSFIELD 00    5.40    89    2.77    46     6.07     6.36
  8. BISHOP 00    4.75   114    1.62    39     4.16     4.84
  9. SALINAS 00    7.31    60    5.74    47    12.13    12.58
  10. PASO ROBLES 00 8.70    74    6.74    58    11.72    12.15
  11. SANTA MARIA 00 7.79    60    6.86    53    12.89    13.32

Next report: May 9

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.