December 18, 2017
Summary: Temporarily, we have a ridge off shore which extends inland over California and into the Great Basin. This will result in another 24 hours of tranquil weather before a major change begins to unfold. For tonight, good radiational cooling will again allow coldest locations to drop into the mid 20s with other locations in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
A strong but moisture starved cold front will move rapidly down the valley Wednesday with a chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County. The trough and its associated front will form a low over northern Mexico by late Thursday. In the meantime, a strong high will build off shore and will ridge into western Canada, putting on a squeeze play between the eastern side of the high diving southward and eventually wrapping around the low, either over the southwest or over northern Mexico. This will present some challenges as very cold air will be driven down the valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. under bright sunshine, highs may only reach the low 50s Thursday and with the cold air settling in, a hard freeze will commence, especially Friday through Christmas Eve.
Through the Christmas weekend, expect generally clear skies and cold nights but with daytime highs moderating a bit. After Christmas, projections are going in various directions, so there’s no real clear pattern showing up. The chance of precipitation seems low as most of the energy moves into the interior west and points eastward.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies tonight. Mostly clear Tuesday with occasional high clouds in the afternoon. Increasing high clouds Tuesday night. mostly cloudy Wednesday with a chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County. Clearing Wednesday night with some possible lingering clouds in Kern County lasting through sometime Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Christmas Day.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/65/35/57 | Reedley 28/65/34/57 | Dinuba 27/64/33/57 | |
| Porterville 29/66/34/58 | Lindsay 27/65/33/57 | Delano 30/66/36/58 | |
| Bakersfield 34/67/39/59 | Arvin 31/67/36/60 | Taft 34/68/41/60 | |
| Lamont 32/67/37/61 | Pixley 29/65/34/59 | Tulare 28/64/35/58 | |
| Woodlake 28/65/34/57 | Hanford 30/65/36/58 | Orosi 28/65/34/58 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Tuesday evening with periods of near calm conditions. Winds late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with gusts to 35 MPH possible along the west side, mainly north of Kern County. Winds will decrease to 5 to 10 MPH with locally stronger gusts Wednesday night with winds of generally less than 10 MPH Thursday and Friday.
Rain: A rather moisture starved but nevertheless strong cold front will move down the valley Wednesday. Afternoon models indicate the dynamics of this system may be strong enough for scattered light showers north of Kern County. I must emphasize the word light as no more than a tenth of an inch is expected and many locations will remain dry. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and on through Christmas Day. For now, nothing suggests a wet pattern on the horizon.
Frost Information: Upper 20s were widespread last night and I would anticipate similar conditions tonight with the coldest locations perhaps down to 26 or so, but locally colder in unprotected low spots. Temperatures this afternoon are running 2 to 4 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago while dew points are roughly the same, running in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
The inversion tonight will be a bit better with temperatures at 34 feet being 4 to 7 degrees warmer, depending on location.
We should see most if not all locations above freezing Wednesday morning due to increasing cloudiness ahead of a cold front diving southward from the Pacific Northwest. Much colder air will invade from the north as a big ridge develops off shore and into western Canada while a low center develops over Arizona or possibly northwest Mexico. In either case, winds will be turned to the north/northeast, driving cold dry air down the valley in the form of gusty winds Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
Thursday’s conditions will be quite chaotic with mid to upper 20s in most locations, but lower 30s are possible where winds stay up and some possible lingering clouds in Kern County.
Friday and Saturday is a horse of a different color as the cold air will have settled onto the valley floor with strong radiational cooling likely. Readings at the very coldest unprotected low spots could dip down to 21 to 23 with most locations ranging from 24 to 28.
Overnight lows Sunday and Christmas Day will still be cold, but daytime highs will be moderating which hopefully will drag up overnight lows a little. Beyond Christmas, there are varying solutions to our pattern, but none of them seem to suggest rain. Some modifications is expected, though, between Christmas and New Year’s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
Next Report: Tuesday morning/December 19