August 5, 2022
Every summer around four or five bouts of monsoon moisture work their way far enough to the west to affect central California. Doppler radar is showing scattered light showers from southeastern Tulare County northward through Fresno, Madera, and Merced Counties. A deep layer of moist air will continue to rotate towards the northwest along the western rim of upper level high pressure parked over the Desert Southwest. Embedded within this flow are scattered light showers which may be with us through late tonight. Models show the high shifting further east Saturday which will turn the winds aloft southwesterly, nudging the monsoon into Nevada and Arizona with active weather confined mainly to the summit of the Sierra Nevada through Monday. yet another round of monsoon moisture will rotate around the western side of high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, resulting in a minimal chance of scattered light showers and thunderstorms. This has been a very active monsoon season for the Desert Southwest and Rocky Mountain region. Models going out two weeks indicate an active monsoon will continue over much of the west. Typically for the valley, most locations that do get rain receive minimal amounts to a few hundredths. On rare occasions, a tenth or two is recorded in isolated locations.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through tonight with a chance of scattered light showers or thunderstorms mainly along the west side north of Kern County. Becoming mostly clear Saturday through Monday. variable cloudiness again Monday night through Wednesday with a chance of scattered light showers or thunderstorms. Clearing Wednesday night. Mostly clear Thursday and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 94/70/98/65/99 | Reedley 95/72/97/70/99 | Dinuba 94/68/98/67/98 |
| Porterville 95/69/98/67/99 | Lindsay 95/68/97/65/99 | Delano 95/71/98/68/99 |
| Bakersfield 95/74/97/73/98 | Taft 96/75/97/73/99 | Arvin 95/71/97/72/98 |
| Lamont 96/71/98/69/99 | Pixley 93/69/96/66/98 | Tulare 93/68/96/66/98 |
| Woodlake 93/67/98/67/99 | Hanford 93/69/98/67/98 | Orosi 92/66/96/67/98 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Mostly clear 68/99
|
Tuesday
Chance of showers 72/98 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 73/96 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 72/98 |
Friday
Mostly clear 70/100 |
Two Week Outlook: August 12 through August 18 This model is showing a very active monsoon through the entire period with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra. There will be periods of variable amounts of mid and high level clouds over the valley floor from time to time.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable to around 10 mph through tonight with local gusts to near 20 mph near showers. Winds Friday through Monday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph with generally light winds during the night and early morning hours.
Rain: Doppler radar at this hour shows scattered light showers along the east side of the valley from roughly Lindsay northward into Merced County. These showers aren’t moving much. If anything, a slight tilt towards the Sierra Nevada foothills. We are in the middle of a monsoon episode which moves through the Desert Southwest and Rocky Mountain region, occasionally moving as far west as California. High resolution models show a scattered light chance of showers through tonight. A southwesterly flow will begin Saturday, nudging the monsoon east of the Sierra Nevada. Dry weather will begin again Saturday and last at least through Monday. like an old friend that drops in from time to time, the monsoon will reappear Tuesday and Wednesday of next week for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms again. Another southwesterly flow will develop, once again moving the monsoon to our east by Thursday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 60%/23% Porterville, 78%/27%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 60s. Kern: Low to mid 60s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.01, Parlier 1.81, Arvin 2.13, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.80, Delano 1.81. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 82, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 94, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/66. Record Temperatures: 110/51
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1339 +226. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.29 or -4.65. Monthly .T -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.15
Average Temperature this month: 88.6 +7.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:09, Sunset, 8:00, hours of daylight, 13:53
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced AP 153 : 104 / 73 / 00 /
- MAE : Madera AP 253 : 104 / 75 / 00 /
- FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 107 / 75 / T /
- HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 105 / 76 / 02 /
- NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 107 / 78 / 00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 104 / 83 / 00 /
- VIS : Visalia AP 292 : M / M / M /
- PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 101 / 73 / T /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
- STOCKTON 00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
- MODESTO 00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
- MERCED 00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
- MADERA 00 M M 1.56 14 10.76 10.79
- FRESNO 00 6.29 57 6.59 60 10.94 10.99
- HANFORD 00 6.34 78 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
- BAKERSFIELD 00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
- BISHOP T 92 105 1.68 36 4.67 4.84
- SALINAS 00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.50 12.58
- PASO ROBLES 00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.08 12.15
- SANTA MARIA 00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 6
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.