October 21, 2022
The current ridge of upper level high pressure will remain in place one more day, allowing temperatures in the warmer locations to heat up to near 90. Changes are already occurring over the Pacific Northwest as the jet stream is beginning to buckle and will rapidly dig out a trough of low pressure into California and Nevada. As far as active weather is concerned, the Sierra Nevada will be at high risk for showers Saturday afternoon through Sunday. The current freezing level is at 12,900 feet. This will rapidly descend, allowing snow levels to drop to around 7,500 feet Saturday night and Sunday. Most models point toward dry weather for the valley. A blend of models puts out an 18% chance of precip for Porterville. So, we’ll keep a minimal chance of light showers in the forecast for late Saturday afternoon and Monday. a cold front will rapidly move down the valley Saturday afternoon, issuing in a much cooler air mass. Temperatures Saturday will plummet into the mid 70s. many locations may not even reach the 70 degree mark Sunday. The flow behind the front will be out of the northwest. That flow will come in contact with the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. As the air is lifted by the mountains, a deck of upslope clouds will form, resulting in an overcast for much of Kern County and easter Tulare County through Monday morning. Skies will clear everywhere by Monday afternoon as a weak ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. Models show another trough of low pressure following a similar path Wednesday.. as for now, however, it looks like any active weather will remain in northern California. Medium range models show a stronger system around Halloween so it finally appears that autumn has arrived and will be with us for a while.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through tonight. Increasing clouds Saturday with a minimal chance of a few light showers through early Sunday, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Clearing from Fresno County north by late Sunday but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare County through Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. Mostly clear Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 91/53/74/44/69 | Reedley 90/54/75/44/71 | Dinuba 89/53/75/42/68 |
| Porterville 91/53/76/43/67 | Lindsay 90/52/76/41/67 | Delano 91/54/75/45/68 |
| Bakersfield 90/60/74/52/66 | Taft 89/63/74/51/65 | Arvin 92/58/74/49/66 |
| Lamont 91/58/75/50/65 | Pixley 91/53/75/44/67 | Tulare 89/51/74/45/68 |
| Woodlake 90/53/76/43/68 | Hanford 91/54/77/47/68 | Orosi 90/51/76/43/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
AM clouds/PM sun 39/67 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 40/75 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 43/76 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 40/73 |
Friday
Mostly clear 41/71 |
Two Week Outlook: October 28 through November 3 This time around, this model isn’t giving a high chance of precipitation but doesn’t rule it out, especially over the northern portion of the district. There will be a couple of opportunities for showers over northern California so we’ll keep a small chance of showers in the forecast with near seasonal temperatures.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature through tonight. Winds later Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph at times through Saturday night with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph Sunday morning, tapering off to 5 to 12 mph Sunday afternoon. Winds Monday will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature.
Rain: A rather vigorous but moisture starved system will move through the valley Saturday afternoon through early Sunday. Light showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada. Even though most models are project dry weather for the valley, we’ll maintain a minimal chance of light showers in the forecast for the valley floor. Greatest risk will be along the east side, especially along the base of the Sierra Nevada foothills. If showers do materialize, no more than .10 will accumulate. Dry weather will return by midday Sunday with dry weather all of next week. the Sierra Nevada should receive a few showers Wednesday due to a weak weather system moving through northern California. Longer term, some models continue to hint at a system moving through around Halloween. We’ll watch for future updates.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%35%, Porterville, 92%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .98, Parlier .80, Arvin 1.08, Porterville .93, Delano .91. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 71, Parlier 71, Arvin, 74, Porterville 76, Delano 75. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 77/50. Record Temperatures: 93/34
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -36. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.28, Monthly .,00 -.28
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.12. Monthly, -.00 -.12
Average Temperature this month: 72.9 +6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:13, Sunset, 6:13, hours of daylight, 11:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 87 / 51 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 55 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 61 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 92 / 53 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 94 / 55 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 91/ 63 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 92 / 60 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1645 / 92 / 68 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 87 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
24h sea. % L.Y % ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 6 0.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 4 0.27 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 13 0.32 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 24 0.21 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.41 146 0.28 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 38 0.24 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 25 0.12 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.23 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.15 50 0.30 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 7 0.28 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.25 13.32
Next report: Saturday, October 22
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.