Most of the fog this morning is from west of Bakersfield northward to just west of Highway 99 up to around Tipton with patchy fog elsewhere, mainly towards the center of the valley. That’s as of 4:00am. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy this morning.
In the big picture, there is a weak upper low off the northern California coast. This feature will move across northern California and into Nevada Saturday. This will result in scattered snow showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada on Saturday with just partly cloudy skies over the valley floor. A second low will slide down the California coast, maintaining partly cloudy skies. This feature carries little moisture so no precipitation is expected. It will eventually slide southward towards northern Baja then move inland through northern Mexico. The flow behind this system is out of the north/northwest which will keep temperatures below freezing with areas of frost during the night and morning hours.
Medium range models still indicate a large ridge will be off the Pacific coast with a cold trough of low pressure over the interior west. This pattern will keep the winds aloft out of the north/northwest and occasionally out of the northeast. This will continue to pump cold air into California through at least Sunday with areas of frost during the early morning hours.
Forecast: partly cloudy through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog, mainly up the center of the valley. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy on through Friday of next week with areas of night and morning fog, mainly up the center of the valley.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/33/61/33/57 | Reedley 60/33/62/34/58 | Dinuba 59/32/62/32/58 |
| Porterville 61/32/62/33/57 | Lindsay 60/32/61/32/58 | Delano 61/33/62/34/57 |
| Bakersfield 61/40/60/41/56 | Taft 61/44/59/43/54 | Arvin 62/33/63/34/58 |
| Lamont 61/35/62/34/59 | Pixley 61/33/61/33/57 | Tulare 60/32/61/32/57 |
| Woodlake 61/33/62/33/57 | Hanford 61/33/62/33/59 | Orosi 60/32/62/32/57 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/61 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/60 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/61 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/63 |
Friday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 23: This model shows a rather chilly northwest flow into California, maintaining below average temperatures. It also indicates above average precipitation over the northern half of California and doesn’t rule out a chance of showers further south.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight through Monday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: As of 4:00am, the coldest temperatures I could find were 31 at Madera, Navelencia, and Lindsay. Most other locations were between 32 and 36. The only real wild card the next few days will be cloud cover. A low pressure system will move through northern California Saturday with no precipitation but there will be some in and out cloud cover over the weekend. If enough cloud cover is evident, overnight lows will respond accordingly with warmer temperatures. However, I’m still going to forecast low to mid 30s with the coldest locations dropping into the upper 20s for short durations. Basically, a northerly flow will be evident the next few days, maintaining below average temperatures so the trend we’re under will basically continue through the weekend and next week with widespread low to mid 30s each morning and daytime highs only in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
34 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
34 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/54% Porterville, 99%/59%
Midafternoon Dew Points: Low to mid to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 70%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 45 Parlier 38 Arvin 54 Porterville 45 Delano 45
Sky cover: Visalia 60% today 80% Bakersfield 80% today 80%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 57, Arvin 62, Porterville 60, Delano 59 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44 Record Temperatures: 84/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 194 +26 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 80% of average, Monthly .80
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 153% of average, Monthly: .41
Average Temperature This Month: 51.9 -5.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 34, Parlier 56, Arvin 26 , Belridge 45, Shafter 33, Stratford 67, Delano 41, Porterville 49 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:34, Sunset, 4:52, hours of daylight, 10:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 61 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 55 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 115 4.32 400 1.08 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 143 3.06 369 0.83 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 102 1.99 205 0.97 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 74 0.65 96 0.68 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 80 1.57 189 0.83 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 91 1.24 191 0.65 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 153 0.95 221 0.43 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 105 0.78 177 0.44 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 13 M M 0.15 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.72 77 2.19 235 0.93 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 115 1.40 163 0.86 13.32
Next report: November 11 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.