November 15, 2022
Temperatures are generally 1 to 3 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago and are generally in the upper 50s to the lower 60s at midday. The air aloft, though, is still pretty chilly as the freezing level earlier today taken over Oakland was just 7,400 feet. The low freezing level is primarily due to a weak upper low centered roughly 150 miles to the west/southwest of Santa Barbara. That low will continue to drift southward along the southern California coast, opening up as a wave of low pressure over northwest Mexico. At the surface, pressure is considerably stronger over the interior west than off the southern California coast. As of midday, the pressure at Salt Lake City was 30.48 inches of mercury while it was 30.08 at LAX. This will set up Santa Ana winds. The Sierra Nevada acts as a blockade, with the winds ending up as warm dry air flooding into southern California. Meanwhile, a big ridge of upper level high pressure will stretch from the eastern Pacific to off the California coast northward into northern Canada, and even southern Alaska. This will create another pipeline of modified arctic air into the interior west, this time a bit too far to the east to reinforce the cold air on the valley floor. The bottom line is, the air mass on the valley floor will remain through at least Saturday before the northern portion of the high breaks down. This means a westerly flow will develop over central California as opposed to the basically northerly flow of the past week. even so, it still won’t release the air mass on the valley floor. That will require a stronger storm system to break up the inversion. We can expect low to mid 60s each afternoon through the coming weekend and low to mid 30s for overnight lows.
Forecast: Areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Otherwise, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Friday. Areas of night and morning fog and low clouds continuing, mainly up the center of the valley, with hazy afternoon sunshine Friday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/64/32/64 | Reedley 31/63/32/64 | Dinuba 31/63/31/63 |
| Porterville 32/65/31/64 | Lindsay 30/65/31/65 | Delano 33/64/33/65 |
| Bakersfield 40/65/41/65 | Taft 43/64/43/65 | Arvin 34/66/33/65 |
| Lamont 34/65/35/65 | Pixley 32/64/32/65 | Tulare 31/63/31/64 |
| Woodlake 32/64/32/64 | Hanford 33/65/33/65 | Orosi 31/64/31/64 |
Wind Discussion: Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Friday. Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Temperatures as of midday are anywhere from 1 to 3 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Dew points are roughly the same as yesterday at this time. The fact that we are a tad warmer this afternoon won’t translate into warmer overnight lows thanks to the long nights of mid November. Expect yet another night of low to mid 30s with the very coldest regions brushing briefly in the upper 20s. I just don’t see a lot of change in this basic pattern through Saturday morning as it will take a weather pattern change strong enough to break up the inversion above the valley floor. A change in the pattern will take place over the weekend, however, as the northern portion of the high breaks down, allowing a west to east flow to set up over California beginning Sunday. I just don’t believe this will have a profound affect on temperatures as it will not be strong enough to crack the inversion. So, expect the status quo to continue for at least four more nights and quite possibly longer.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Marcopa
Af |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 16 morning
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