November 22, 2022
Strong upper level high pressure remains over California and the western one-third of the US. There are lots of mid and high level clouds overrunning the high, but these clouds in no way threaten precipitation. The high will dominate our weather through the weekend. However, as we get closer to a major weather event, my confidence is growing that we will receive abundant rain in the valley and heavy snow in the mountains. Three weather systems show up on models and each has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska. The high will break down late Sunday, allowing a potent storm system to move into California. Rain will spread as far south as Fresno by Monday afternoon with periods of rain Monday night through Tuesday night. It appears there will only be about 24 hours between storms so I’m leaving rain in the forecast all the way through next Friday, although there will be dry periods between systems.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. A chance of rain Monday afternoon and Monday night. Rain Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/30/64/31/69 | Reedley 65/30/64/31/68 | Dinuba 64/29/64/30/68 |
| Porterville 65/29/65/30/69 | Lindsay 64/28/64/29/69 | Delano 63/30/64/30/71 |
| Bakersfield 64/40/64/41/71 | Taft 63/46/64/46//71 | Arvin 67/34/67/36/70 |
| Lamont 64/35/64/36/68 | Pixley 65/29/65/30/68 | Tulare 63/28/65/29/69 |
| Woodlake 64/30/64/39/68 | Hanford 65/31/65/32/68 | Orosi 64/30/64/30/68 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Partly cloudy 33/69 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 32/70 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 35/66 |
Monday
PM rain 38/66 |
Tuesday
Rain 41/58 |
Two Week Outlook: November 27 through December 3: This model shows a completely different pattern. it depicts a decent chance of rain for both northern and central California. The flow aloft will be out of the west/northwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. During the night through midmorning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 mph with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: My confidence is growing that significant precipitation will overspread central California next week. we may see rain as early as Monday afternoon as the first of three low pressure systems moves southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. It’s a bit early to come up with rain totals, but on paper this looks to be significant. Periods or rain will be with us through Friday of next week, but the good news is that rain is on the way.
Frost: The coldest locations as of 5:30 this morning were Lindsay and Exeter at 28, Ivanhoe at 29 and a lot of locations were in the 30 to 32 range. Tonight will be similar as beneficial temperatures continue through Friday. The inversion will be good tonight with temperatures at 34 feet being 5 to 8 miles warmer. Models still show overnight lows dragging up Friday. I’m taking a wait and see attitude. As of Monday, a series of Pacific storms out of the Gulf of Alaska will bring beneficial rain to the valley. For now, it looks like unsettled weather will be with us Monday through Friday of next week, keeping temperatures above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 98%/31%
Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 80% Bakersfield:
Today 50% tomorrow 8-%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .56 Parlier, .51 Arvin .58 Porterville .55 Delano .50
Soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 57 Porterville .53, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Arvin 59, Porterville 54,
Delano 55 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 62/41 Record Temperatures: 81/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 373 +73Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 47% of average, Monthly .66
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 108% of average, Monthly: .66
Average Temperature This Month: 50.0 -4.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1 st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 152, Parlier 205 Arvin 137 ,
Belridge 175, Shafter 173, Stratford 205, Delano 180, Porterville 198 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:44, Sunset, 4:46, hours of daylight, 10:02
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : M / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 65 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 63 / 40 / 0.00 /
:VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 63 / 33 / 0.0
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1 st through September 30 th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 78 4.32 273 1.58 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 98 3.06 253 1.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 74 1.99 150 1.33 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 49 0.65 63 1.03 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 58 1.57 139 1.13 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 68 1.24 143 0.87 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 108 0.95 156 0.61 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 84 0.78 142 0.55 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 11 M M 0.18 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.46 106 2.19 159 1.38 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.71 65 1.58 144 1.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 78 1.40 110 1.27 13.32
Next report: November 22 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.