November 28, 2022
The next 48 hours will be fairly tranquil if you don’t mind an increase in wind conditions which will help scour out the valley. Currently, winds from Visalia north are out of the northwest averaging 8 to 15 mph. This is the leading edge of a cold air mass which is diving southward behind a trough of low pressure currently moving through Nevada and Utah. This system will race eastward into the Rockies overnight.
There is plenty to talk about in the world of weather as two strong low pressure systems will give the blessing of rain which may very well turn heavy over the mountain areas. We have the proverbial pineapple connection setting up. For the younger generation possibly not familiar with that term, the modern terminology is an atmospheric river. This juicy moisture field will run from southwest to northeast from the Pacific north of Hawaii. Lift provided by the Coast Range and the southern Sierra Nevada should result in 2 to 4 inches of precipitation from Tulare County north in the mountains. As you can imagine, heavy snow is also expected with snow levels initially near 9,000 feet because of the tropical air, lowering to near 6,000 feet after the cold front moves through. Rain should spread into Merced and Fresno Counties Thursday afternoon and the remainder of the valley Thursday night into Friday.
There should be several hours of dry weather between this system and storm number 2, which is a horse of a different color. This system will roll southward right off shore and will park off the California coast Saturday night and Sunday. The flow around the storm will cause bands of showers to pinwheel inland from time to time, resulting in more, much needed precipitation. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Timing will be everything.
Monday through Wednesday of next week will be dry with the possibility of more rain late next week.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight and Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday morning. Rain becoming likely at times as far south as Fresno County Thursday afternoon then over the remainder of the valley Thursday night and Friday morning. Rain could possibly be locally heavy at times north of Kern County. A chance of showers Friday night with dry weather for a while early Saturday. Rain spreading in from the west Saturday night, continuing on and off through Sunday, decreasing Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday with areas of morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/65/30/55 | Reedley 33/57/29/61 | Dinuba 32/56/28/60 |
| Porterville 32/57/28/62 | Lindsay 32/56/28/61 | Delano 34/57/29/61 |
| Bakersfield 42/57/34/61 | Taft 42/56/38/62 | Arvin 36/58/32/57 |
| Lamont 36/59/32/60 | Pixley 33/59/29/60 | Tulare 31/62/28/60 |
| Woodlake 33/63/28/61 | Hanford 33/57/29/62 | Orosi 32/57/28/62 |
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight will be mostly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, continuing through Tuesday. Gusts to near 25 mph are possible, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Thursday morning. Rain from the first two storm systems this week for the valley will arrive Thursday afternoon as far south as fresno and over the remainder of the valley Thursday evening through Friday midday. Storm number 2 will increase the chance of showers again Saturday night and continue Sunday into Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts between the two systems will be between an inch and an inch and a half in Merced County, one-half to one inch in Fresno and northern Tulare Counties, a quarter to a half inch in Kings and southern Tulare Counties, and a tenth to around a quarter of an inch in Kern County. The first storm will be affected greatly by lift. As the air is lifted, it causes high degrees of condensation which results in heavy mountain rain over the west facing slopes with snow up high. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2 to 3 new feet of snow at places like Tioga Pass all the way southward to the Kern County line.
The second storm will not have much lift, but it’s path right down the coastline is ideal for moving bands of showers over central California from Saturday night through Sunday night. I would like to see a pattern like this continue through the winter months and into the spring.
Frost: It’s possible that cloud cover from time to time will slow the radiational cooling process again tonight. There are broken areas of cloud cover off shore which will be moving inland from time to time. However, low to mid 30s will be commonplace if skies clear for several hours. Wednesday morning will be colder as a colder air mass will dive southward behind the system now traveling over the Great Basin. It will be a difficult night to forecast as wind conditions, potential upslope clouds, and mixing will all play a significant role. The character of the air mass will bring coldest, low lying locations down to 26 to 27 in unprotected regions, 28 to 32 elsewhere will hillsides generally slightly above freezing. Thursday will be mainly governed by a possible increase in clouds ahead of two wet weather systems. For now, it appears Thursday night through Sunday night will be above freezing. However, I am hedging a bit as cloud cover may not make it in time to completely shut off the radiational cooling effect Thursday morning. Medium range models do not show a modified air mass moving down the valley after Sunday’s storm event. The air mass is cold, however, and will result in low to mid 30s Wednesday and could be somewhat colder.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 29 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.