Most of the valley early this morning is covered in either dense fog or low clouds. Bakersfield is reporting an overcast based at 4,600 feet while Porterville and Visalia report overcast between 5,000 and 5,500 feet. Fresno is down to ¾ mile visibility in fog while Merced County has fairly widespread dense fog. Now that we’re into the shortest days of the year, and have a very low sun angle, these clouds will be difficult to burn off. The disturbance which resulted in a few showers yesterday hash now moved into southern Nevada. The next disturbance upstream is similar to yesterday’s event and will result in a chance of light showers Thursday and Friday. A major winter storm will dig southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California this weekend. The river forecast center is projecting as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain along the Sierra Nevada and perhaps an inch or so on the wetter locations in the central valley north of Kern County. Considering we’ve already reached our average December rainfall in some areas, these will be pennies from heaven. This system’s origins are from the Gulf of Alaska so snow levels will be fairly low. Also, the air mass behind this storm is quite cold and there’s a reasonable chance frost will be back in the forecast beginning Tuesday morning.
Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. Widespread fog and low clouds tonight. Mostly cloudy Thursday with a chance of showers. A slight chance of showers Thursday night. A higher risk of showers Friday and Friday night. Rain likely at times Saturday through Monday. partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday with widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings.
Temperatures:
| Madera 56/34/56/39/57 | Reedley 57/35/57/38/58 | Dinuba 55/34/56/39/57 |
| Porterville 57/35/56/39/57 | Lindsay 55/34/56/39/56 | Delano 55/36/57/5639/57 |
| Bakersfield 56/40/56/42/56 | Taft 55/40/55/42/55 | Arvin 57/39/57/39/56 |
| Lamont 58/39/57/39/58 | Pixley 55/35/56/39/58 | Tulare 55/37/56/39/57 |
| Woodlake 56/36/55/39/56 | Hanford 56/36/56/40/57 | Orosi 55/35/56/38/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Rain likely 40/58 |
Sunday
Rain likely 46/61 |
Monday
Rain likely 38/57 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 33/57 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 32/51 |
Two Week Outlook: December 13 through December 19: This model shows that the storm track will continue to affect northern and central California from time to time. It also holds onto below average temperatures so it appears most of these storms will be out of the Gulf of Alaska.
December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.
December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the later morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 18 mph and variable in nature. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light and variable with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: There will be another chance at a few light showers Thursday night as a weak upper air disturbance moves through. On Friday, there will be yet another shot at light showers, mainly over the northern part of the valley. A strong winter storm will affect us Saturday through Monday with periods of rain, locally heavy at times. The river forecast center for California and Nevada is projecting another 2 to 4 inches of rain or water equivalent from late Friday through late Monday. wetter locations on the valley floor could measure up to an inch from this storm with lesser amounts on the west side and in Kern County. Several days of dry weather are due beginning next Tuesday.
Frost: For this forecast package, I’m going for above freezing conditions tonight but just barely above in the coldest locations. The valley is covered with a potpourri of either fog or low clouds, depending upon location. we are now down to 9 hours and 45 minutes of daylight. Couple that with a low sun angle and I believe it will be difficult to break up the pea soup on the valley floor, thus maintaining above freezing conditions. If skies do happen to open up, low to mid 30s would be widespread. Temperatures will be above freezing Friday through Tuesday due to an active weather pattern. the air mass settling in behind the weekend storm is quite cold. The fog and low cloud situation beginning Tuesday morning will determine temperatures, with widespread low to mid 30s being possible with coldest locations possibly touching the upper 20s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
| Belridge
af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
af |
| Root creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/54% Porterville, 100%/68%
Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today 10% tomorrow 60%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .34 Parlier, .32 Arvin .30 Porterville .21 Delano .25
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 53 Arvin 55 Porterville .53, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Soil Temperatures:
Average Temperatures: 57/37 Record Temperatures: 70/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 586 +58 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 2.35, 142% of average, Monthly .1.69
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .82, 88% of average, Monthly: .16
Average Temperature This Month: 51.3 +3.7 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 322, Parlier 364 Arvin 252 , Belridge 300, Shafter 317, Stratford 336, Delano 333, Porterville 349 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:58, Sunset, 4:42, hours of daylight, 9:45
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 61 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 62 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 43 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 61 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 62 / 40 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 62 / 40 / 0.03 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
MERCED 0.00 2.52 132 1.99 104 1.91 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.50 94 0.65 41 1.60 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 2.35 142 1.57 95 1.65 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.63 131 1.24 100 1.24 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.82 88 0.95 102 0.93 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.62 85 0.78 107 0.73 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 8 M M 0.25 2.20
SALINAS 0.10 2.32 107 2.19 101 2.17 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.05 2.55 152 1.58 94 1.68 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.03 106 1.40 73 1.91 13.32
Next report: December 7 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.