The first challenge this evening will be overnight low temperatures, discussed below in the frost summary. As of midday, there was a combination of sunshine and scattered clouds over most of the valley. Dew points as of midday are in the mid 40s with air temperatures in the low to mid 50s. With mostly clear skies tonight, tule fog will have no problem forming and will become widespread by sunrise. There is also a weak upper air disturbance which blended model information gives a 30% chance of showers as it moves overhead Thursday night. Most of the models have backed up the weekend storm just a bit with rain expected to spread as far south as the San Francisco/Sacramento line by Saturday morning then into the central valley at mid to late afternoon and finally into the south valley Saturday evening. Models depict this as a major winter storm. Two to three feet of new snow is possible over the high Sierra with one to three inches of rain below the snow line. The backside of this low will still be overhead by Monday morning, so we’ll keep a chance of rain in the forecast until midday Monday. a December like air mass will settle in Tuesday through Thursday of next week. the main forecast challenge will be overnight low temperatures plus fog and low cloud development.
Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds later this evening, becoming widespread by sunrise. Widespread fog and low clouds Thursday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night with a chance of light showers Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night with areas of fog and low clouds nights and mornings. Increasing cloudiness Saturday morning. rain spreading as far south as Fresno County by mid to late afternoon with rain spreading into the south valley Saturday evening. Rain at times Saturday night through Sunday night, possibly locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Monday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Monday afternoon. Areas of fog and low clouds Monday night and Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon. Widespread fog and low clouds Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, clearing in most areas Wednesday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/56/38/56 | Reedley 33/57/39/57 | Dinuba 32/56/38/56 |
| Porterville 33/57/39/57 | Lindsay 31/57/37/56 | Delano 34/57/40/57 |
| Bakersfield 38/56/42/54 | Taft 41/55/42/54 | Arvin 37/57/39/58 |
| Lamont 35/57/40/58 | Pixley 33/57/39/58 | Tulare 32/56/39/58 |
| Woodlake 33/57/39/56 | Hanford 34/57/40/56 | Orosi 33/57/38/57 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be light and variable through Friday with extended periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday night will be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Saturday with stronger gusts from Fresno County north.
Rain: Our first challenge will arrive Thursday night. Blended model information indicates a 30% chance of light showers, which seems plausible at this point. Dry weather will return Friday through Friday night. Models are pretty consistent now in showing the onset of precipitation as far south as Fresno County by mid to late afternoon Saturday and over the remainder of the valley Saturday night. This storm has a great deal of potential for heavy precipitation in the mountains with a good soaking in the valley. Between .50 and 1.00 north of Kern County along the east side seems plausible, around .25 and .33 along the west side of the valley, and upwards of .25 in Kern County. Rain will continue through Sunday night then will break into showers for a time Monday morning. For now, the end of this weather pattern will likely begin Tuesday with several days of dry foggy weather after that.
Frost: Tonight will be a race between fog and local frost. There are still areas of lower level clouds as of midday, but my feeling is most of that will dissipate, allowing for radiational cooling. However, dew points are in the mid 40s this afternoon with air temperatures only in the low to mid 50s. that temperature spread will narrow quickly and move in on dew points, allowing fog to form. For this forecast package, I’m going to forecast our typical cold locations in the lower 30s. We’ll find out Thursday morning what effect fog has on temperatures. At any rate, it’s a safe night,, and if I were and orange, I’d be happy. Above freezing conditions will prevail Friday through Monday morning as more storminess moves our way. The air mass swinging in behind the weekend storm is cold with the potential for upper 20s and lower 30s beginning Tuesday morning. No doubt there will be the annual battle between fog and frost.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
af |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
af |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root creek
31 |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 8 morning
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