December 15, 2022
A considerable amount of fog and low clouds developed this morning up and down the center of the valley. The fog had cleared in all areas except Hanford which was reporting 1/4 mile visibility at noon. Temperatures are generally 2 to 4 degrees cooler today than yesterday. Dew points, on the average, are 2 degrees higher than yesterday. There is more moisture on the valley floor now, it’s only a subtle change but one which could mean more fog and low clouds in the coming days. There is also variable amounts of high thin clouds from a weak weather system roughly 500 miles to the west of San Francisco. There’s actually quite a bit of cloud cover off shore, however it’s doing battle with high pressure over California and the west. If enough of this cloud cover streams overhead tonight, lows would be somewhat milder than forecast Friday morning. For now it looks like the cloud deck will be too high and too thin to have much of an impact on the radiational cooling process.
The low about 500 miles west of San Francisco will weaken and turn into just a weak wave of low pressure, affecting only sharks and whales. Currently, medium range models show dry weather for the next seven to ten days. The main challenge day by day will be in forecasting how much fog and low clouds will form on any given morning. My bet is that it will become fairly extensive by Friday morning. Even though we will evolve from a rex block pattern, we will simply evolve into a pattern of strong upper high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western 1/3 of the US.
Forecast: Variable amounts of high thin clouds tonight along with increasing amounts of night and morning valley fog. For Friday through Sunday look for mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy skies with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Monday through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds each day.
Temperatures:
| Madera 31/57/31/57 | Reedley 31/56/31/57 | Dinuba 30/57/30/58 |
| Porterville 30/56/31/58 | Lindsay 29/56/29/58 | Delano 31/57//31/58 |
| Bakersfield 36/59/36/58 | Taft 39/57/39/58 | Arvin 33/58/33/59 |
| Lamont 34/57/34/58 | Pixley 31/57/31/58 | Tulare 29/56/30/57 |
| Woodlake 31//57/31/58 | Hanford 30/56/30/58 | Orosi 29/57/29/58 |
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds during the night and early morning hours will be light with periods of calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: There are subtle changes taking place out there this afternoon which lead me to believe temperatures will be a bit milder tonight than last night. Dew points are averaging 2 degrees higher than 24 hours ago while temperatures are down 2 to 4 degrees. Even though it’s not much, a couple of degrees either way can make a big difference. Also, I’ve been monitoring high clouds just off the California coast which are bumping up against high pressure over California. However, these clouds are making minor progress inland and could play a role in slowing down the cooling process. Therefore, I’m going to raise my temperature expectations for tonight.
Coldest overnight lows will range from 29 to 31 while most flat terrain areas will chill down to 30 to 33 with hillsides remaining above freezing. The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet generally 5 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.
Lows Saturday and Sunday mornings should be roughly about the same but the wild cards in the form of fog and low clouds will be in play. For tonight, we can include higher clouds. Medium range models give little hope for precipitation any time soon. Models going out 10 days give little hope for precipitation. Temperatures will be mainly governed by the amount of fog and low clouds on any given morning.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 16 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.