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Forecast

January 12, 2023 report

Trudy Hibler

January 12, 2023

Today is going to be one of those rare days where nothing is falling out of the sky. A weak ridge of high pressure is currently over California, but it’s on the move and will shift eastward allowing the next Pacific storm to roll in from the west by Friday evening. This will be the next in a series of renewed storm events for the valley which will last for a good week. the way these storms are lining up across the Pacific, most and possibly all days will record measurable rain. Rain will be locally heavy at times Saturday as the thrust of the first system comes through. It has a semi atmospheric river of air aimed at both northern and central California. Areas along the east side of the valley north of Kern County could easily pick up .50 from this storm. If there is one blessing to this, besides the increased water supplies, it’s that this series does not have a superstorm such as the one that ended a few days ago. Instead, it’s one that will drop average amounts of rain over the next 7 day period. Rainfall estimates for the Sierra indicate 4 to 6 inches of rain are plausible over the next week and anywhere from 1.50 to 2.00 along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. Models are still hinting at the possibility of a dry pattern beginning around the 19th. Even the new 2 week outlook, for the first time in about 3 weeks, is calling for below average precipitation.

 

Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy today and tonight. Increasing cloudiness Friday leading to a chance of rain by evening. Rain becoming likely Friday night. Rain at times Saturday through Tuesday with a chance of rain Tuesday night through Thursday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 63/44/63/48/56 Reedley 65/45/63/48/57 Dinuba 62/44/62/46/67
Porterville 65/45/61/47/57 Lindsay 64/46/62/48/57 Delano 65/46/64/48/58
Bakersfield 67/49/65/48/58 Taft 65/51/65/50/58 Arvin 66/47/65/48/58
Lamont 66/47/65/48/59 Pixley 62/44/63/46/67 Tulare 63/43/61/45/67
Woodlake 63/44/63/48/56 Hanford 64/46/62/47/56 Orosi 62/45/61/47/57

 

Seven Day Forecast

Sunday

Rain likely

46/57

 Monday

Rain likely

44/56

 Tuesday

Rain likely

43/57

 Wednesday

Chance of rain

38/53

 Thursday

Chance of rain

37/55

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 19 through January 25: For t he first time in about three weeks,, this model is portraying a dry weather pattern. a cut off low will be over southern California with a pool of relatively cold air so look for below average temperatures.

 

January:  This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.

 

January, February, March:  This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds today will be variable to no more than 10 mph. Winds Friday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph, increasing to 8 to 15 mph Friday night. Winds Saturday through Sunday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts north of Fresno.

 

Rain Discussion: Today will be what has become a rare dry day and with a little luck we may get part of Friday as well. Models vary a bit on the timing of the next storm, ranging anywhere from midday Friday to late Friday evening. This first storm is fairly strong but not in comparison to the Big Kahuna of a couple of days ago. Still, anywhere from .25 to .50 is possible along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. The west side will be in a fairly weak rain shadow, so expect somewhere .25 and  probably no more than .10 to .20 over the valley portion of Kern County. On and off periods of rain will continue through mid week. some days it will be just .10 to .20 while other days could be upwards of .50. like we’ve been discussing, a possible end to the deluge could be about a week away, however between now and then we could pick up another 2.00 with somewhat lighter amounts elsewhere.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above freezing tonight.

 

Actual humidity values for Porterville 94%/55%, Delano  93%46%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: low to mid 40s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .24, Parlier, .26, Arvin .47, Porterville .24, Delano .29  Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53 Arvin 54, Porterville 51, Delano 52 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 55/37  Record Temperatures: 67/20

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1221 -21 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  8.25, 205%  of average, Monthly  3.00

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 3.53, 154%  of average,   Monthly:  1.18

Average Temperature This Month  52.2 +6.2 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 784,  Arvin 657 Belridge 730, Shafter 755, Stratford 763,  Delano 779,  Porterville  757  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 5:04, hours of daylight, 9:52.

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  55 /  48 /  0.04 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  56 /  48 /     T /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  57 /  47 /  0.02 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  59 /  43 /     T /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  57 /  44 /  0.01 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  62 /  44 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  59 /  43 /     T /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  59 /  42 /     T /

 

Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th

                                            SEAS.     %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                      0.12   12.71   233    8.21   151     5.45    13.45

MODESTO                       0.13   11.03   232    8.15   171     4.76    12.27

MERCED                        0.04   10.81   245    5.82   132     4.42    11.80

MADERA                           T    4.10   104    1.52    39     3.93    10.79

FRESNO                        0.02    8.25   205    5.21   129     4.03    10.99

HANFORD                          T    6.06   196    4.60   149     3.09     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.53   152    3.55   152     2.33     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    8.02   451    4.50   253     1.78     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.32    54       M     M     0.59     2.20

SALINAS                          T    7.72   158    6.11   125     4.89    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.01    9.78   222    7.12   162     4.40    12.15

SANTA MARIA                      T   11.60   246    6.10   130     4.71    13.32

 

 

Nest report: January 12 afternoon

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.