January 23, 2023
Skies are partly cloudy over some areas of the valley this morning. Bakersfield was reporting an overcast sky at 4,100 feet. It is also seasonably chilly as the air mass remains fairly cold under a northerly flow aloft. The balloon sounding over Vandenburg AFB indicated a freezing level of 4,800 feet, illustrating the chilly nature of the air mass fairly well. There is a low center over southern Arizona and a big high off the Pacific coast which continues to generate that northerly flow. As the week wears on, the off shore high will begin to build into California which, in turn, will set up a slow warming trend. The lower 50s of late will be replaced by mid to upper 50s Wednesday and Thursday and will hold there into the coming weekend. Dry weather will continue through the weekend. In fact, dry weather may make it into the first week of February if you believe the GFS model, which had pointed to a chance of rain in early February. It’s currently backing off that possibility.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear skies will continue Thursday night through Monday with areas of morning fog and low clouds.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/31/57/32/59 | Reedley 55/32/57/33/59 | Dinuba 52/30/57/32/58 |
| Porterville 54/31/57/33/59 | Lindsay 54/30/57/31/59 | Delano 54/31/57/32/59 |
| Bakersfield 53/34//58/36/59 | Taft 53/37/57/38/58 | Arvin 54/33/58/34/60 |
| Lamont 53/33/58/36/60 | Pixley 53/31/54/33/55 | Tulare 54/29/57/31/58 |
| Woodlake 54/31/57/32/58 | Hanford 55/31/57/33/58 | Orosi 54/30/57/33/58 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Am fog/pm sun 34/55 |
Friday
Am fog/pm sun 35/57 |
Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 35/60 |
Sunday
Am fog/pm sun 35/57 |
Monday
Am fog/pm sun 35/58 |
Two Week Outlook: January 28 through February 3: This model for the second day in a row is shifting towards a pattern that would bring precipitation back to central California. Potential storminess would be from the Gulf of Alaska so it appears we will start off February with below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 mph late mornings and afternoons and variable in nature. winds during the night and morning hours will be light with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Widespread low to mid 30s were prevalent again this morning with a spattering of upper 20s. A northerly flow continues above the valley floor, which will result in basically the same temperatures for the next few days. Coldest unprotected river bottom locations will continue to dip down to 27 to 28 degrees with most flat terrain locations in the 29 to 22 degree range. Minor modification will begin around Wednesday or Thursday as upper level high pressure off shore begins to shift inland over California. Even so, many locations will continue to drop into the lower 30s. a dry weather regime will continue for the remainder of the week and likely through next week, as well, allowing strong radiational cooling during the overnight hours and allowing local frost through the weekend. The inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet roughly 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/82%, Delano 97%64%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .37, Parlier, .29, Arvin .34, Porterville .26, Delano .33 Soil temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Arvin 50, Porterville 46, Delano 48 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 56/38 Record Temperatures: 72/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1395 -40 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.20, 197% of average, Monthly 3.95
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.99, 151% of average, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature This Month 50.4 +4.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove NA, Parlier 874, Arvin 736 Belridge 817, Shafter 842, Stratford 857, Delano 869, Porterville 838 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:07 Sunset, 5:16, hours of daylight, 10:08
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 53 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 55 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 51 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 51 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 48 / 34 / 0.00 /
/Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.47 241 8.21 128 6.41 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.42 236 8.15 143 5.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 12.84 243 5.85 111 5.29 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 4.66 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.20 192 5.21 109 4.80 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.80 187 4.61 127 3.63 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.99 145 3.56 129 2.75 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.57 390 4.50 205 2.20 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 53 M M 0.73 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.90 152 6.11 105 5.84 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.75 236 7.34 136 5.40 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 13.33 234 6.26 110 5.70 13.32
Nest report: January 23 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.