February 11, 2023
Temperatures at midday are running anywhere from 6 to 11 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The center of circulation of a cold upper low is located near San Simeon at this hour and is drifting southward parallel to the coast. Doppler radar continues to show light showers up and down the Sierra Nevada. Light showers have also popped up over the Coast Range. As the low moves into southern California tonight, the circulation pattern around the low will generate an easterly flow which could nudge some light showers off the foothills and into the eastern San Joaquin Valley,, mainly near the foothills. The combination of a developing off shore flow and strong jet stream energy will generate some strong, gusty winds along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada Sunday. These winds will not affect the valley. The next system to deal with is dropping southward out of western Canada and into the Pacific Northwest. This is a very cold system and will cause snow levels to drop by 1,500 to 2,000 feet by Tuesday. Light snow showers will again spread down the Sierra Nevada with a chance of sprinkles over the valley floor. like the current system, Tuesday’s event will largely be dry. As a much colder air mass invades California, gusty north to northwest winds will move down the valley Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will likely lower dew points into the mid to upper 20s, setting the stage for a frost/freeze event. For the third day in a row, models have projected Porterville at 29 degrees both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Theoretically would cause temperatures in the traditional cold spot to lower into the mid to upper 20s.. Yet another low will drop southward just off shore Friday into Saturday. If this feature tracks southward close enough to the coast, there would again be a chance of light showers Friday into Saturday with the best chance of measurable rain being on the west side.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness tonight with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers, mainly near the base of the foothills. Partly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night and Monday. partly cloudy Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night with a slight chance of sprinkles. Mostly clear and cold Wednesday through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday night with a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 33/58/33/63 | Reedley 34/58/35/64 | Dinuba 32/57/34/63 |
| Porterville 34/58/33/64 | Lindsay 32/58/33/63 | Delano 35/58/34/64 |
| Bakersfield 39/57/39/63 | Taft 38/56/40/64 | Arvin 36/60/35/64 |
| Lamont 36/60/35/63 | Pixley 33/58/34/64 | Tulare 32/57/33/63 |
| Woodlake 33/57/34/62 | Hanford 33/60/34/64 | Orosi 33/57/34/63 |
Wind Discussion: Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. winds later tonight through Monday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will increase out of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 35 mph are possible from Fresno County north and along the west side.
Rain: Scattered light showers are occurring over the Sierra Nevada with even a few cells over the Coast Range. Measurable rain on the valley floor is unlikely but cannot be ruled out. The greatest risk will be along the Sierra Nevada foothills and possibly near the bae of the Kern County mountains tonight. Sunday and Monday will be dry. Another slight chance of sprinkles will be on hand Tuesday and Tuesday night as a very cold low drops southward from the north. Like the current system, most, if not all, the precipitation will be confined to the mountain areas. On Friday, we’ll see another slight chance of showers as yet another low drops southward just off shore. The best chance of measurable rain from this event will be along the west side of the valley, closer to the center of circulation. The second half of the weekend and well into the following week currently appear to be dry.
Frost: As expected, it’s much cooler this afternoon a a pool of relatively cold air associated with an upper low just to our west is currently moving in. tonight will be chaotic for temperature forecasting due to in and out cloud cover and wind conditions. By and large, where skies remain clear tonight, low to mid 30s will be common. Where cloud cover is more consistent, temperatures will be in the mid 30s to near 40. Monday morning will be more consistently in the low to mid 30s with mostly clear skies. Tuesday will be a transition day from the air mass moving in and a modified arctic air mass which will drop southward into the western US Tuesday. Models are still showing Wednesday and Thursday mornings to be very cold with most flat terrain chilling into the 28 to 31 degree range and unprotected river bottoms possibly as low as 25 to 27. Some moderation will begin Friday morning. Friday may have some increasing cloudiness from a low pressure system dropping southward from just off shore. The bottom line is, Wednesday and Thursday will be the times of most concern with modification over the weekend.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmin
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 12 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.