March 1, 2023
The center of circulation of the last low to move through a very cold trough of low pressure is centered over Kern County and is moving into southern California. Showers are still occurring over the south valley this morning but will end as the day progresses. Cold air is wrapping around the back side of the low and will move down the valley on the back of gusty northwesterly winds weak high pressure over the eastern Pacific will expand into California tonight and Thursday for at least a short period of dry weather, lasting through Saturday. The next trough to move out of the Gulf will arrive in northern and central California Saturday night and Sunday. Light showers will spread as far south as a Sacramento line Saturday night and down the valley Sunday in the form of light showers. The risk of light showers will continue through Monday. Wednesday into Thursday will be dry but for the third day in a row models show a low dropping into a position off the central coast Thursday, moving inland Thursday night through Friday night with the potential for heavy amounts, especially in the mountains.
Forecast: Showers this morning, mainly south of Fresno County. Partly cloudy this afternoon and evening. Becoming mostly clear later tonight through Friday night. Increasing clouds Saturday. Mostly cloudy Saturday night with a chance of light showers Sunday and Monday, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 48/28/54/30/57 | Reedley 49/29/54/31/57 | Dinuba 48/28/55/29/56 |
| Porterville 47/28/55/29/57 | Lindsay 48/27/56/28//57 | Delano 50/29/56/31/57 |
| Bakersfield 48/32/53/33/56 | Taft 48/34/53//37/56 | Arvin 48/30/56/31/58 |
| Lamont 48/29/56/31/58 | Pixley 48/29/55/30/57 | Tulare 47/27/55/29/56 |
| Woodlake 49/29/56/31/57 | Hanford 49/29/56/31/58 | Orosi 49/28/57/30/57 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Increasing clouds 33/57 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 37/58 |
Monday
Chance of showers 36/56 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 34/56 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 31/57 |
Two Week Outlook: March 8 through March 14 This model gives the highest likelihood of precipitation anywhere in the country for this period of time to northern and central California. With the likelihood of precipitation will be below average temperatures.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: winds will begin to pick up out of the northwest during the late morning and afternoon hours at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts as high as 35 mph will be possible this afternoon into evening, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds will die off during the overnight hours, becoming mostly light after midnight. The possible exception will be the east side where winds out of the northwest will continue at 8 to 15 mph. winds Thursday through Saturday will be generally less than 12 mph during the late morning and afternoon hours and generally at or less than 6 mph during the overnight hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Light showers will continue for a time in the south valley then come to an end by midday as the low pulls off to the east. Dry weather will prevail this afternoon through Saturday. Our next chance at light showers will come on Sunday. This looks to be a moisture starved trough, but light showers are still possible north of Kern County. For now we’ll put this in the chance category as most of the action will be confined to the mountain areas. That chance will continue through Monday. dry weather will return Tuesday through Wednesday night. This is the third day in a row a significant storm is depicted off the northern and central coast, potentially spreading precipitation over our area Thursday night through Friday night.
Frost Discussion. Very cold air will surge southward today behind the exiting low. High temperatures at most locations today will not even reach the 50 degree mark. Model information projects Porterville at 29 tonight. Assuming skies clear in a timely manner, and winds die off, coldest unprotected low spots will potentially drop to 25 to 26 both Thursday and Friday mornings. Most flat terrain operations will drop to between 27 and 30. The atmosphere will be somewhat chaotic tonight, as is typical behind an exiting storm. We will have to watch to see what, if any, upslope clouds develop against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada. Also, winds conditions may play a part tonight, especially along the west side. Only those areas with clear skies and no wind will realize the potential. Friday morning will be just as cold, but by then the air mass will have stabilized. Skies should be mostly clear with little to no wind for strong radiational cooling. By Saturday morning the air mas will have modified some. Even so, if we have clear skies, coldest locations will dip into the upper 20s with most locations in the low to mid 30s. Mid 30 to near 40 can be expected Sunday through Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week could drop into the low 30s with a few upper 20s possible, especially Wednesday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/65%, Delano 95%52%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .46, Parlier, .38, Arvin 66, Porterville .40, Delano .48 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 48, Arvin 50, Porterville 47, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 65/42 Record Temperatures: 83/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2018 +44 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 13.04, Monthly 3.83
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.59, Monthly: 2.27
Average Temperature This Month 47.8 -3.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1297, Arvin 1107, Belridge 1202, Shafter 1229, Stratford 1274, Delano 1267, Porterville 1240 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:30, sunset, 5:53. hours of daylight, 11:20
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 52 / 42 / 0.50 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / M / M / M /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 44 / 0.14 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 46 / 0.15 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.10 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 43 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 44 / 0.09 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 58 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 42 / 0.02 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.42 17.15 179 8.21 86 9.59 13.45
MODESTO 0.39 15.12 177 8.16 95 8.55 12.27
MERCED 0.39 15.00 186 5.87 73 8.07 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 7.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.12 13.00 179 5.25 72 7.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.12 10.30 191 4.78 89 5.39 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 6.59 156 3.67 87 4.22 6.36
BISHOP T 9.63 290 4.50 136 3.32 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.86 64 M M 1.35 2.20
SALINAS 0.23 10.11 113 6.18 69 8.95 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.26 15.40 180 7.37 86 8.54 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.19 16.70 182 6.33 69 9.20 13.32
Next report: March 1 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.