March 14, 2023 pm
When the epitaph of this storm is written, it will be remembered more for wind than heavy rain. The latest observation out of San Francisco indicated winds out of the south at 49 mph, gusting to 74. Winds are gusting to 45 mph at Monterey. In the valley, winds at Merced are gusting to 43 mph. so far, it doesn’t appear these winds have made it down to the valley floor in Kern County. However, near the top of the Grapevine, Sandburg reported winds sustained at 33 mph, gusting to 61. Rainfall amounts in the south valley have been light. However, north of northern Tulare County a good soaking has been experienced. More in the rainfall discussion below. As of noon, the center of circulation of the surface low was right near San Francisco. The altimeter reading there was 29.53 while at LAX the reading was 30.09. The difference in pressure explains the wind events very well. Showers will continue well into the overnight hours but will end by sunrise. The next system wll pretty much wash out as it approaches the coast Friday. There is substantial disagreement on model information about the next wave of low pressure due in Saturday night and Sunday. Some models point to drying time while others show a chance of light showers. There is still the possibility of another atmospheric river event Tuesday night and Wednesday of next week which may be our next significant producer.
Forecast: Periods of showers through the late evening hours. A chance of a few showers after midnight. partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday. A chance of light showers Saturday night through Sunday. A slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of rain by evening
Temperatures:
| Madera 48/60/42/64 | Reedley 50/60/41/65 | Dinuba 49/61/40/65 |
| Porterville 49/62/41/66 | Lindsay 48/62/41/65 | Delano 51/62/43/66 |
| Bakersfield 53/59/47/65 | Taft 53/58/45/61 | Arvin 51/60/45/65 |
| Lamont 52/60/45/65 | Pixley 49/60/42/64 | Tulare 48/59/40/64 |
| Woodlake 50/62/42/64 | Hanford 49/61/41/66 | Orosi 48/60/41/64 |
Wind Discussion: There has been a wide variety of wind conditions out there today. From generally Merced County north, winds have been gusting between 35 and 45 mph. Hurricane force winds have been reported along the northern California coast. And winds in the 45 to 62 mph range have been recorded over the mountainous terrain of Kern County. So far, these winds have not made it down to the valley floor in Kern County. That is still a possibility through this evening. then, as a low moves inland later tonight, pressure gradients will relax and winds will diminish. Winds after midnight tonight will be generally at or less than 15 mph. Winds Wednesday through Saturday will be variable to around 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The following are rainfall totals from the current storm as of 12:00pm. Bakersfield .05, Belridge .06, Porterville .14, Lemoore .48, Visalia .35, Fresno .52, and Merced .51. Satellite and radar data are showing decreasing activity, however, with patches of blue sky, more showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible through the late evening hours. Rainfall from this point on at any given location should be at .25 or below. The only difference would be if thunderstorms break out. The weather will be dry from Wednesday through at least Saturday. A storm will try to make it through here during the second half of the weekend, however model guidance isn’t much help on this one. For now, we’ll just add a chance of light showers to the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. Models this morning were suggesting active weather Monday into Tuesday. That seems more iffy now. However, models have fairly consistently shown a low moving through about Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week with the possibility of another atmospheric river event.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next several days.
Next report: March 15 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.