January 1, 2018
Summary: High pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere is standing firm over the western one-third of the U.S. Satellite imagery this afternoon is showing denser cloud cover just off shore which should result in a milder night tonight unless these clouds are eaten up by the strong high. These clouds are the precursors of a subtropical low several hundred miles off shore, but it will move east/northeast inland through northern California. Even though the valley will be under the weaker sector of this system, there’s still a reasonable chance of light showers Wednesday night and Thursday.
Models for this coming weekend depict wet conditions as another subtropical low moves northeastward towards the California coast. Models diverge considerably, though, in how to handle this feature but the storm door will be open so the chance of rain Friday night through Sunday will certainly exist.
Looking ahead to next week, models the past few days have consistently shown the storm door being open for Pacific storms to move inland. One medium range model shows precipitation overspreading our region about Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week with possible chances of rain even further ahead. The two week model strongly suggests that rain will be above average for most of California and, with generally a westerly flow aloft, temperatures will remain above seasonal values.
Forecast: Variable high clouds tonight through Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness Wednesday leading to an increasing chance of light showers Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. Friday night through Sunday, there will be at least a small chance of rain at any given time with partly cloudy skies Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/65/37/66 | Reedley 33/66/36/67 | Dinuba 32/64/35/65 | |
| Porterville 33/67/37/67 | Lindsay 32/66/36/67 | Delano 33/67/38/67 | |
| Bakersfield 40/68/42/69 | Arvin 35/67/37/68 | Taft 45/68/46/70 | |
| Lamont 33/68/38/68 | Pixley 34/65/37/66 | Tulare 32/65/37/66 | |
| Woodlake 33/66/37/67 | Hanford 34/65/38/66 | Orosi 32/65/36/66 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: There hasn’t been a whole lot of change in model runs in the chance of rain for Wednesday night and Thursday. It appears the chance is pretty decent from Fresno County northward, but a chance of light showers cannot be ruled out for the south valley, as well. Beyond Thursday night, it will be a matter of waves of low pressure moving inland from time to time over the weekend. There will be a chance of showers at any given time Saturday and Sunday as more waves come on shore. Next week, the blocking high will not be there. Current thinking is that wet weather will return about the middle of next week. The two week model out this afternoon is strongly suggesting above average rainfall during the period.
Frost Information: Realistically, most if not all locations should be above freezing tonight as thicker cloud cover begins to move in from the west/southwest. I’m still going to forecast some of the traditional cold spots in the lower 30s in case gaps open up during the night and allow cooling. Also, dew points continue to edge up and are generally in the low 40s this afternoon. With a tad more moisture in the air, the radiational cooling process won’t be as strong, so that’s also working in our favor.
A weather system will move through the region Wednesday night and Thursday with its subtropical air mass. It will move lows Thursday morning possibly into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. with the exchange of air masses, I don’t anticipate below freezing conditions through at least Friday.
We may get more showers over the weekend as another subtropical low moves inland. Next week appears active, at least in part, with relatively mild conditions continuing. Overnight lows will be well above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
33 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
AF |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
31 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
AF |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
AF |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Next Report: Tuesday morning, January 2