March 27, 2023 am
It is a cool, crisp morning in the valley. A number of ag stations are at or slightly below freezing. The coldest I could find on the valley floor were a pair of 29s at Sanger and Lindsay and 30 at Exeter. Most other locations were between 31 and 36. This will be the last subfreezing morning we’ll see for a while, although mid 30s will be possible Friday and Saturday mornings. Today will be several days warmer due to a weak southerly surface flow which will begin ahead of an intensifying low pressure system which is currently off the southern Oregon coast. Models continue to push back the onset of precipitation for the valley as it now appears Tuesday night will be the arrival time. This system will be somewhat of a coastal hugger. That is to say, it will move southward parallel to the northern California coast Tuesday night through Wednesday night then move inland through the southern half of California Wednesday night and early Thursday. The center of circulation will be around 150 miles west of San Francisco Wednesday afternoon. This will move at least a portion of the coldest and most unstable portion of the system overhead during the time of maximum daytime heating Wednesday afternoon. This will result in a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Models show the backside of this system moving into Nevada and southern California by sunrise Thursday, so it now appears most of Thursday will be dry on the valley floor with showers continuing for a time over the mountains. The weather will again turn dry Thursday night through the weekend. A system will move into the Pacific Northwest and will affect roughly the northern one-fourth of California early next week. longer term, there’s still no sign of the eastern Pacific high returning to its dominant position of recent years. In fact, the two week outlook is again calling for above average rainfall.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through tonight. Increasing clouds Tuesday. Rain spreading southward Tuesday night. Showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. A chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A chance of a few lingering showers Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 65/37/68/43/60 | Reedley 66/38/66/43/59 | Dinuba 65/37/65/43/59 |
| Porterville 67/39/70/44/58 | Lindsay 66/37/69/43/59 | Delano 66/40/69/44/58 |
| Bakersfield 67/43/69/47/58 | Taft 66/45/70/47/58 | Arvin 67/40/71/45/59 |
| Lamont 67/41/71/41/60 | Pixley 65/37/68/43/60 | Tulare 65/36/65/42/58 |
| Woodlake 66/37/67/42/60 | Hanford 66/38/66/43/60 | Orosi 64/36/65/42/58 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
AM showers 38/60 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 36/59 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 36/64 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 41/67 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 44/66 |
Two Week Outlook: April 3 through April 9: This model is again showing a better than even chance of above average precipitation during this period. The dominant trend this winter of above average temperatures will continue.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds this morning will be light to near calm and variable to no more than 10 mph this afternoon. Winds tonight will be light to near calm. Winds Tuesday and Tuesday night will be generally out of the south to southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds by Wednesday afternoon will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 20 mph, mainly along the west side. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Models have once again pushed back the timing of the onset of rain for the valley until Tuesday night. Rain can be expected Wednesday with showers Wednesday night. Isolated thundnerstorms cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon and evening. Most models show the precipitaton just to our east and south by Thursday morning, although we’ll keep a lingering chance of light showers in the forecast for Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts still appear to be in the .50 to .75 over the east side of the valley north of Kern County with generally .25 to .33 along the west side and .25 or less over the valley portion of Kern County. Most of Thursday through the remainder of the week and well into next week appear dry, although medium range models do not show the storm door closing through the middle of April.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. In fact, temperatures for the remainder of the week will be above freezing although temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are possible Friday and Saturday mornings with a slight chance of a few frost pockets hitting 33 to 34 or so. Nothing shows up in the medium term showing a pattern conducive for frost.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .85, Parlier, .78, Arvin 57, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 56, Arvin 57, Porterville NA, Delano 58 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/46 Record Temperatures: 91/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2319 +102 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.09, Monthly 3.61
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.29, Monthly: 2.53
Average Temperature This Month 51.3 -5.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:51, sunset, 7:18. hours of daylight, 12.25
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 59 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 58 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 60 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 60 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 59 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 60 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 57 / 38 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.76 193 8.36 74 11.30 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 18.19 179 8.23 81 10.14 12.27
MERCED 0.00 19.21 199 6.31 65 9.67 11.80
MADERA 0.00 10.20 114 1.64 18 8.93 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.09 192 5.45 61 8.92 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 13.72 205 5.30 79 6.68 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 9.29 177 4.54 87 5.24 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.62 356 4.50 117 3.83 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.06 66 M M 1.60 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.14 122 6.41 59 10.81 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 19.75 184 7.55 70 10.76 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 22.26 193 6.38 55 11.51 13.32
Next report: March 27 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.