August 17, 2023/pm
Summary: A very rare, very complex weather pattern continues to unfold with rapidly intensifying Hurricane Hilary as the cornerstone. Hilary is several hundred miles to the south of Cabo San Lucas. As of noon today (Thursday) maximum sustained winds were at 105 mph. Hilary will likely continue to intensify over the next 48 hours. By Sunday morning, Hilary will be located just off the northern Baja peninsula then will track northward, moving across San Diego County early Monday morning. What’s amazing about this is the fact that Hilary will still be a named tropical storm as it tracks northward through central LA County then northward through east/central Kern County and eastern Tulare County. The warning cone still brings the path of this storm right up the spine of the Sierra Nevada then into north west Nevada by Tuesday morning.
Just as this storm makes landfall, an upper low off the central coast will begin to move inland through central California, adding additional convection. Rainfall amounts over southern California will generally range between 3 and 6 inches with locally more, especially over San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego Counties. Rainfall amounts in the Tulare County portion of the Sierra Nevada as well as the Kern County mountains will generally be between 2 and 4 inches. Rainfall amounts on the valley floor will be heaviest in Kern County where 1 to 1.50 inches is possible, sloping to between .50 to 1.00 south of Merced County. Arrival time for precipitation may be as early as late Saturday night or Sunday morning. The chance of rain will increase Sunday afternoon and will become likely Sunday night through Monday night, coming to a close by Tuesday morning. Dry weather can be expected the remainder of next week.
This is only the second time I’ve seen the possibility of tropical storm force winds reaching into southern California, but that will be possible Sunday night and Monday with strong gusty winds over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. Localized winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible over the valley portion of Kern County Monday with gusts up to 25 mph further north.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Saturday morning and not as hot. Increasing cloudiness Saturday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Saturday night with a slight chance of showers after midnight, mainly in Kern County. A chance of showers Sunday morning then rain becoming likely Sunday night through Monday morning with a chance of thunderstorms. Rain will be locally heavy at times, especially in Kern County. A chance of a few showers Tuesday morning. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Temperatures: Lows tonight will cool into the mid 60s to the lowers 70s. highs Friday will warm into the mid 90s to near 100.
Next update: August 18/am