September 27, 2023
Summary A trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska southward to the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California.. temperatures through Friday will change very little with readings mainly huddled in the mid 80s. It is this weekend when some major changes will take place over central California. A secondary low will develop over the northern California/southern Oregon Friday night, forming a new low pressure system right over central California. As the low moves overhead, a cold pool of air will settle into central California with showers over the mountains. Even though models are still showing varying solutions, there is enough evidence to support a forecast of at least a slight chance of showers over the valley floor Saturday through Sunday. The origins of this air mass will be from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will drop well down into the 70s with upper 60s and lower 70s being possible if a dense cloud canopy develops. Snow will fall down to 7,500 to 8,000 feet over the high Sierra. By Monday, the low will have shifted into the Great Basin, allowing a ridge of upper level high pressure to begin building in from the west. Much warmer conditions will begin by mid week as readings will jump from the low to mid 70s over the weekend to near 90 on Wednesday with low to mid 90s possible Thursday and Friday. For the first time, there are hints of another low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California next weekend. We’ll study this as we move forward.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Friday, increasing cloudiness Friday night. Variable cloudiness Saturday through Sunday night with a chance of showers, especially near the foothills. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday. mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday with a warming trend.
Temperatures:
| Madera 84/55/85/55/84 | Reedley 86/55/86/55/85 | Dinuba 84/54/85/55/84 |
| Porterville 84/53/84/53/85 | Lindsay 83/53/84/54/84 | Delano 86/56/86/55/85 |
| Bakersfield 84/59/84/60/85 | Taft 82/60/82/61/83 | Arvin 86/57/86/57/85 |
| Lamont 87/57/86/57/86 | Pixley 84/55/84/56/85 | Tulare 83/53/84/53/84 |
| Woodlake 84/54/84/53/85 | Hanford 85/55/86/55/85 | Orosi 83/53/84/53/84 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Slight chance of showers 54/72 | Sunday Slight chance of showers 51/71 | Monday Partly cloudy 51/75 | Tuesday Mostly clear 53/83 | Wednesday Mostly clear 56/88 |
Two Week Outlook: October 4 through September October 10 Over the past three weeks, low pressure has been the predominant feature over the west coast. This model continues that trend with at least marginally below average temperatures and a higher than normal risk of precipitation.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph with stronger gusts through Friday morning. From Friday afternoon through Sunday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. gusts over 25 mph will be possible, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion. There is more than enough evidence on paper to support at least a minimal chance of showers over the valley floor Saturday through Sunday. Models show a cold pool of air associated with an upper low right over central California late Saturday into Sunday.. showers will be likely over the Sierra Nevada and, to a lesser extent, the Kern County mountains and even the Coast Range. Greatest risk for measurable rain will be near the foothills. Dry weather will return by Monday and continue through Friday of next week. there is some indication of a new low dropping into California next weekend, however, it’s too early at this point to speculate on rain chances.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.27, Parlier, 1.14, Arvin 1.31, Delano 1.17.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 74, Arvin 78, Delano 74 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 87/58 Record Temperatures: 105/44
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2001 +228 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 76.6 +1.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise ,6:52 Sunset, 6:47. hours of daylight, 11:58
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 83 / 59 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 86 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 85 / 64 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 86 / 63 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 82 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 84 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 173 9.87 74 13.42 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.20 165 9.08 74 12.25 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.64 65 11.78 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.71 109 2.75 26 10.78 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 164 6.40 58 10.97 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 186 6.38 79 8.11 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 179 5.41 85 6.35 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.61 345 6.73 140 4.81 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.64 168 2.04 94 2.17 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.38 59 12.56 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.91 172 9.08 75 12.13 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.08 181 9.63 72 13.30 13.32
Next report: September 28 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.