September 28, 2023
Summary Little change will occur in our weather through Friday. A weak trough continues to stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to central California. A new low center will move out of the main trough of low pressure, eventually carving out a new low over central California Friday night and Saturday. Models have upped the ante on the chance of precipitation this weekend. The cold pool of air associated with this system will be right overhead Saturday and Saturday night. Showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada Saturday and Saturday night with snow down to 7,500 feet or so. I would put the chance of measurable rain on the valley floor for Saturday into Sunday at roughly 50/50. Once the daytime heating process gets underway Saturday, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening. The low center will move to a position over northern Nevada Sunday with the back side of the low remaining over central California, maintaining a chance of showers through Sunday. By Monday evening, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build inland into California for dry weather and a warming trend. It’s possible for both Saturday and Sunday that high temperatures in some locations may not reach 70 degrees. A significant warming trend will begin Tuesday. As the high takes over mid week, temperatures will warm to near 90 Wednesday then climb into the low to mid 90s Thursday and on through the weekend.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Friday. Increasing clouds Friday night. Variable cloudiness Saturday through Sunday night with a chance of showers. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 85/54/86/55/70 | Reedley 85/55/85/56/69 | Dinuba 83/53/84/54/68 |
| Porterville 84/54/86/56/70 | Lindsay 84/53/86/58/68 | Delano 85/55/85/57/71 |
| Bakersfield 84/59/86/61/73 | Taft 82/62/83/61/70 | Arvin 86/57/86/60/71 |
| Lamont 85/58/86/60/72 | Pixley 84/55/86/58/71 | Tulare 83/53/85/56/69 |
| Woodlake 84/54/85/58/71 | Hanford 85/55/86/59/70 | Orosi 83//53/85/59/70 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday Chance of showers 55/69 | Monday Partly cloudy 53/75 | Tuesday Mostly clear 53/83 | Wednesday Mostly clear 59/90 | Thursday Mostly clear 58/92 |
Two Week Outlook: October 5 through October 11 Over the past three weeks, low pressure has been the predominant feature over the west coast. This model continues that trend with at least marginally below average temperatures and a higher than normal risk of precipitation.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph with stronger gusts through Friday morning. From Friday afternoon through Sunday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. gusts over 25 mph will be possible, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion. Models have upped the ante on the chance of measurable rain this weekend. A deepening low will be overhead Saturday and Saturday night with the back side of the low still overhead Sunday. I would put the chance of rain at any given location on Saturday or Saturday night at around 50/50. The chance of showers Sunday is a little less but still enough to keep a chance of showers in the forecast. Rainfall amounts from Saturday through Sunday will generally be at or less than 50 percent. Isolated pockets could pick up a quarter of an inch if heavier showers and thunderstorms develop Sunday and Sunday evening. Dry weather will return Sunday night and will continue all of next week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.28, Parlier, 1.13, Arvin 1.31, Delano 1.16.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 74, Arvin 78, Delano 73 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 87/58 Record Temperatures: 104/43
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2010 +230 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 18.02, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 11.34, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 76.4 +1.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise ,6:52 Sunset, 6:45. hours of daylight, 11:55
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 84 / 56 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 85 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 87 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 72 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 84 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 173 9.87 73 13.43 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.20 165 9.08 74 12.25 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.93 178 7.64 65 11.78 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.71 109 2.75 26 10.78 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 18.02 164 6.40 58 10.98 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 15.06 185 6.38 79 8.12 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 11.34 179 5.41 85 6.35 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 16.61 345 6.73 140 4.82 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 3.64 167 2.04 94 2.18 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.95 111 7.38 59 12.57 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.91 172 9.08 75 12.14 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 24.08 181 9.63 72 13.31 13.32
Next report: September 29 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.