October 2, 2023
Summary The skies have cleared over much of the valley. There is still a great deal of cloudiness over the east side of the valley in Fresno and Tulare Counties. The base of the overcast over Porterville is 7,500 feet. The low pressure system that brought rain to the valley has shifted into Utah as upper level high pressure approaches from the west. Rainfall amounts from the weekend storm ranged from trace amounts to as much as .15 at Bakersfield. However, I have grower reports of close to .50 being recorded in localized areas. The upcoming week will be a tranquil one as upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific slowly builds inland. By Wednesday, the center of circulation of this high will be just off the Oregon/northern California coast. The high will build further inland Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures will respond accordingly, approaching the 90 degree mark as early as Wednesday. Low to possibly mid 90s look possible Thursday through Sunday. By Tuesday of next week, the high will begin to be displaced by a trough of low pressure building southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska. Currently, it doesn’t look like this system will bring rain. However, temperatures will return to near seasonal values.
Forecast Outside of residual cloud cover along the east side, it will be mostly clear today. Mostly clear tonight through Friday with a warming trend. Mostly clear Friday night through Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 78/53/82/55/89 | Reedley 78/53/83/55/89 | Dinuba 76/52/82/54/87 |
| Porterville 77/52/83/55/88 | Lindsay 77/51/83/55/88 | Delano 79/54/83/56/89 |
| Bakersfield 76/59/83/60/90 | Taft 75/59/82/62/86 | Arvin 77/56/83/60/90 |
| Lamont 78/57/83/59/90 | Pixley 78/55/82/57/89 | Tulare 76/52/81/55/87 |
| Woodlake 77/51/83/55/88 | Hanford 78/54/83/57/89 | Orosi 77/52/82/55/88 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Mostly clear 57/92 | Friday Mostly clear 57/93 | Saturday Mostly clear 58/92 | Sunday Mostly clear 57/92 | Monday Mostly clear 56/88 |
Two Week Outlook: October 9 through October 15 This model indicates above average temperatures will continue during this period. There will be a chance of showers over northern California with a slight chance over central California.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remans to be seen.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable at 8 to 15 mph through Thursday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. Here are a few rainfall totals from the weekend system: Porterville, Stratford, and Firebaugh .02, Visalia and Madera .04, Lemoore .07, and Bakersfield .15. there are isolated pockets that picked up close to .50, according to grower reports emailed to me. Expect dry weather this week and much of next week. a trough of low pressure will be approaching the west coast about Tuesday of next week, but for now it looks like any precipitation will remain north of our region.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.12, Parlier, 1.01, Arvin 1.18, Delano 1.02.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 70, Arvin 76, Delano 70 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 85/56 Record Temperatures: 101/40
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2028 +224 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 65.0 -5.0 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise ,6:56 Sunset, 6:39. hours of daylight, 11:46
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 75 / 57 / 0.01 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 76 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 76 / 54 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 76 / 54 / 0.06 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 73 / 56 / 0.15 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 73 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 55 / 0.01 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.27
MERCED 0.01 0.01 100 0.00 0 0.01 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.15 0.15 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 6.36
BISHOP 0.02 0.02 200 0.00 0 0.01 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 2.20
SALINAS 0.01 0.01 100 0.00 0 0.01 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 13.32
Next report: October 3 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.