October 17, 2023
Summary A weak wave of upper level high pressure is moving through. The only way to see this feature exists is that temperatures will drop back 2 to 4 degrees today. Just off shore, a rather strong ridge of high pressure will begin to push inland Wednesday. The center will be almost right overhead Thursday and Friday for rapid warming. Late summer temperatures will return Thursday and Friday as readings push into the low to mid 90s. the overall pattern remains progressive, meaning highs and lows continue to follow one another across north America. This pattern will change this weekend as a low moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest Saturday night and Sunday. Models vary somewhat on the placement of should be a closed low. This system will drop into either northern California or Nevada, depending on model of choice. While precipitation is not expected, temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degrees by Sunday with readings only in the low to mid 70s Sunday through Tuesday. Currently, the only precipitation expected from this will be over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. By Tuesday, the center of circulation will be over Arizona. High pressure will build in from the west later next week for a slow warming trend.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 82/52/89/55/93 | Reedley 83/52/89/55/93 | Dinuba 82/51/88/54/92 |
| Porterville 83/53/89/55/93 | Lindsay 82/51/89/54/92 | Delano 84/53/89/57/93 |
| Bakersfield 84/60/90/63/95 | Taft 81/61/86/65/91 | Arvin 85/55/89/58/93 |
| Lamont 84/55/89/57/93 | Pixley 83/54/89/57/93 | Tulare 82/52/88/55/92 |
| Woodlake 83/53/87/54/92 | Hanford 83/53/88/55//92 | Orosi 82//52/88/55/92 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Mostly clear 56/93 | Saturday Mostly clear 56/84 | Sunday Partly cloudy 53/77 | Monday Partly cloudy 50/73 | Tuesday Partly cloudy 44/74 |
Two Week Outlook: October 23 through October 29 This model shows a trough of low pressure affecting most of the western US, lowering temperatures to near seasonal levels. There will also be at least some chance of precipitation.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph. winds tonight through Friday will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions,
Rain Discussion. For now, it appears dry conditions will continue for at least the next week to possibly ten days. I’m hedging a bit for Sunday through Tuesday as models show a closed low over Nevada and California. It looks like any precipitation will be over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Again, we’ll go with a dry forecast. We’ll continue to scrutinize this time frame but so far so good.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.08, Parlier, .88 , Arvin 1.05, Delano .96.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier *, Arvin 73, Delano 68 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 79/52, Record Temperatures: 96/36
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2102 +251 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 70.2 +2.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:08. Sunset, 6:20. hours of daylight, 11:14
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 87 / 50 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.22 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.17 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 5 0.00 0 0.20 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.17 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.15 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 214 0.00 0 0.07 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 106 T 0 0.17 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.07 35 T 0 0.20 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.17 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.16 13.32
Next report: October 18
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.