January 12, 2018
Summary: quite an interesting infrared satellite image this morning. During the early morning hours, a low cloud deck based at 3,300 feet began to form along the Sierra Nevada foothills of Tulare county. As of the time of this writing, it covers just about all of Tulare and Kern Counties and is gradually moving northward.
Meanwhile, skies are relatively clear north of Visalia where extensive ground fog extends all the way from Tulare County northward to the Sacramento Valley. As of now, most of the fog is at or west of Highway 99, but it is expanding towards the foothills on both sides of the valley. These clouds and/or fog will be slow to burn off today and will have a significant role in temperature outcomes, especially in the south valley.
Overall, the pattern is an upper high center west of Baja with a ridge building northward off the coast and over California. This has created a warm air inversion at roughly 3,000 feet which will effectively trap significant low level moisture on the valley floor. Therefore, there will be extensive fog and/or low clouds through at least Monday with some clearing in the afternoon.
By Monday, the high will begin to flatten out then will allow a weak weather system to move into northern California Tuesday. It’s possible light showers could occur from mainly Fresno County northward, but for now that’s very much in the chance category.
The flow aloft for much of next week will be out of the west. Models continue to indicate a stronger low will move into California Thursday night and Friday. behind this system will be much colder air so it’s possible we m ay be dealing with frost concerns next weekend. In the meantime, though, we’ll just battle the fog machine and adjust the forecast as we move forward.
Forecast: Fog and/or low clouds this morning in most areas. Partial clearing in some areas during the afternoon. Low clouds and fog tonight and through Monday with partial afternoon clearing. Partly cloudy Monday night with a small chance of light showers from mainly Fresno north Tuesday and Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with a chance of rain Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/46/55/47/61 | Reedley 58/47/58/49/60 | Dinuba 57/49/57/46/59 | |
| Porterville 57/48/57/47/59 | Lindsay 59/49/58/48/59 | Delano 58/49/58/48/58 | |
| Bakersfield 57/49/58/48/59 | Arvin 57/48/57/49/59 | Taft 60/50/59/49/60 | |
| Lamont 58/50/58/47/61 | Pixley 57/48/58/48/59 | Tulare 57/47/58/48/58 | |
| Woodlake 58/48/58/49/59 | Hanford 59/46/59/48/60 | Orosi 58/47/58/46/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/PM sun 47/61 |
Tuesday
Small chance of showers 45/63 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 42/63 |
Thursday
Increasing clouds 44/66 |
Friday
Chance of rain 46/60 |
Two Week Outlook: January 18 through January 24: This model shows the storm track potentially moving into California from the Gulf of Alaska. At this point, it looks like temperatures will be below average with a reasonable chance of rain.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Monday night. a weak weather system will move through central California Tuesday and Tuesday night for a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north. A stronger and colder storm system with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska may move through about late Thursday night or Friday. on paper, this system has potential for anteing a full winter storm with lowering snow levels. Another low may affect the area about a week from Sunday.
Frost: Expect above freezing conditions through at least Friday morning of next week. Models show a possibly significant storm system with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska moving through next Friday with much colder air behind it. It’s much too early to discern how low temperatures could possibly get but for now it doesn’t look like a critical situation.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s
Humidity, Visalia, 75%/100% Bakersfield, 65%/95%
Actual Humidity January 10, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 53%/95%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 30% tomorrow 50%, Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 40%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 10, 2018: Stratford .26, Parlier .24, Blackwell, .32 Lindcove .28, Arvin .32, Orange Cove .28, Porterville .21, Delano .NA., Madera Two 20. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 56, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 56, Delano NA, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 74/19. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 964, -377 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 55.0 +11.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.23 season. or -2.96. Month to Date: .48
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .88, or -1.45, Month to Date: .82
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 527, Parlier, 560, Arvin, 497, Shafter, 627, Stratford, 568, Madera two, 798, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 548, Porterville, 734. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 5:03 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1538 / 60 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 57 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 60 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 62 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.52 62 10.12 178 5.67 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.25 66 8.18 165 4.96 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.99 43 8.13 174 4.68 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.31 27 6.23 128 4.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.23 29 7.57 178 4.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.68 40 4.62 111 4.16 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.88 37 3.96 167 2.37 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 10 3.94 190 2.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.13 44 7.41 154 4.80 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.16 47 7.04 152 4.63 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 39 8.13 163 4.99 13.95
Next Report: Friday, January 12/pm