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November 7, 2023 report

Trudy Hibler

November 7, 2023                                                                     

Summary  Rainfall amounts south of Fresno County are generally less than .10. As much as .33 has been tallied northward into Merced County. Site specific rainfall amounts are located below in the rainfall discussion. As of the time of this writing, light showers were still falling mainly in the southeastern corner of the valley and along the foothills in southeastern Tulare County. Dry conditions prevail elsewhere. A weak trough of low pressure stretches from the northern Rockies to central and southern California. The trough will continue to move southeastward, allowing a weak ridge of upper level high pressure to build eastward into California Wednesday through Thursday. Another weak trough of low pressure will move through Friday and Friday night with no active weather, but it will have the tendency to maintain near average temperatures. A stronger ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build inland over the weekend, resulting in dry weather with a warming trend. Readings will warm from the mid 60s today and tomorrow to the mid 70s by Monday. we are still looking at the 15th through the 18th for possible wet weather. Models are showing a significant area of low pressure off the California coast on the 15th, slowly moving southeastward on the 16th and 17th. Models this morning aren’t as bullish on this possibility, but the trend is nevertheless continuing.

Forecast  A continued risk of light showers for a time this morning, mainly in Kern County. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy weather today into Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night with patchy morning fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. Mostly clear Saturday through Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday.      

Temperatures                            

Madera 67/40/66/37/69Reedley 68/40/65/38/68Dinuba 66/40/65/36/68
Porterville 67/40/65/38/67Lindsay 67/39/65/36/67Delano 68/41/65/38/68
Bakersfield 66/47/66/43/69Taft 62/48/63/45/65Arvin 67/44/65/41/68
Lamont 68/43/66//41/69Pixley 67/41/66/39/69Tulare 66/40/65/36/67
Woodlake 67/40/65/37/67Hanford 68/42/65/38/67Orosi 66/39/65/36/68

Seven Day Forecast

Friday Partly cloudy 38/67Saturday Mostly clear 37/70Sunday Mostly clear 39/75Monday Mostly clear 39/76  Tuesday Increasing clouds 43/73  

Two Week Outlook:  November 22 through November 16  This model  shows the storm track moving further south with a reasonable chance of precipitation during this period. Temperatures will be fairly close to average.  

October:  This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.

October, November, December  This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.

Wind Discussion  Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. Local gusts to 20 are possible this afternoon and evening. From late tonight through Friday, winds will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

Rain Discussion.  Light showers will still be possible for a time this morning, mainly over the southeastern corner of the valley. Otherwise dry weather will prevail through early next week. there will be a chance of rain by the middle of next week as what appears to be a significant storm approaches the northern California coast. 

Storm totals from the current system as of the time of this writing are: Delano .02, Porterville .07, Exeter .04, Visalia .06, Hanford .02, Lemoore .08, Fresno and Clovis .10 each,  Madera .21, and Merced .35.

Frost Discussion: Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s from Thursday morning through Sunday morning. It’s possible isolated river bottom locations could bump the freezing mark. Models still show mild weather for next week.

Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .72, Parlier, .70, Arvin .82, Delano .74.

Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier *, Arvin 64, Delano 60 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 69/45,  Record Temperatures: 87/33

Heating  Degree Days Season.  70 -52 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  T, Monthly  .00

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: .30, Monthly:  .00

Average Temperature this Month 61.2 +3.2 taken at NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28:  Parlier, 20  Arvin, 17 Belridge, 15 Shafter, 19 Stratford, 16 Delano 19, Porterville, 0. Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise, 6:29.  Sunset, 4:56.  hours of daylight, 10:29

NA=Not available

Yesterday’s Weather:                                                

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  80 /  59 /     T /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  81 /  54 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  80 /  58 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  82 /  53 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  81 /  50 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  83 /  56 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  80 /  53 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  81 /  50 /  0.00 /

Rainfall stats:                      seas    %        L.Y   %     ave.     s.a.

STOCKTON                         T    0.19    22    0.27    31     0.87    13.45

MODESTO                          T    0.42    62    0.31    46     0.68    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    0.16    20    0.37    46     0.80    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.02     4    0.17    31     0.55    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00       T     0    0.14    21     0.68    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00       T     0       T     0     0.55     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.30    86    0.27    77     0.35     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.18    46    0.01     3     0.39     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.13     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    0.22    29    0.24    32     0.75    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.05     7     0.68    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00       T     0    0.01     1     0.69    13.32

…………………………………………………………………………….

Next report:   November 7/pm                                                                                                                                         

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.