November 8, 2023
Summary Skies cleared out nicely overnight with just patchy low clouds against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi and some patchy low clouds over the southwest corner of the valley. Temperatures are as much as 8 to 14 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago due to the exchange of air masses and clear skies above. Temperatures are in the upper 30s to the lower 40s at most locations. The air aloft is also considerably cooler. The balloon sounding above Oakland indicated a freezing level of 6,900 feet. Upper level high pressure is now beginning to bulge into the Pacific Northwest and northern California while a trough of low pressure makes its way through the interior west. The next trough of low pressure to move onshore will do so Thursday night and Friday and will be marked by some increasing cloudiness but little else. A stronger ridge of upper level high pressure will build in over the weekend, allowing temperatures to move back into the low to mid 70s. Models are still pointing at a major change next week. all indications are we will have an intensifying low pressure system off the northern California coast Tuesday. Once this system begins to affect central California, it will be with us for a while as it will be Friday or Friday night before this system moves inland, giving at least three days of active weather. It must also be noted that there appears to be strong differences in pressure between the north coast of California and southern California. This configuration is such that large differences in pressure will spawn strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley and, to a lesser extent, the west side. We will have to monitor future model runs to tweak this forecast. A second system may approach the central coast next weekend for another chance at precipitation.
Forecast Mostly clear skies through tonight. Variable cloudiness Thursday through Thursday evening then clearing. Mostly clear Friday through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday. increasing cloudiness Monday night. Mostly cloudy Tuesday with a chance of rain Tuesday night. Rain becoming likely Wednesday with gusty winds.
Temperatures
| Madera 66/36/69/38/67 | Reedley 67/36/67/39/66 | Dinuba 65/35/66/39/67 |
| Porterville 67/36/68/39/67 | Lindsay 67/34/69/37/67 | Delano 67/38/67/39/66 |
| Bakersfield 68/43/68/40/67 | Taft 64/46/63/48/62 | Arvin 67/38/67/41/67 |
| Lamont 68/39/69/40/68 | Pixley 67/36/69/39/67 | Tulare 66/34/67/37/67 |
| Woodlake 65/35/66/39/66 | Hanford 66/36/67/38/66 | Orosi 65/34/66/37/66 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Mostly clear 35/69 | Sunday Mostly clear 38/74 | Monday Mostly clear 38/76 | Tuesday PM rain possible 47/75 | Wednesday Rain likely 50/69 |
Two Week Outlook: November 15 through November 21 This model continues to show an active pattern for central California with the likelihood of precipitation. a major winter storm may come on shore between the 15 and the 18. Temperatures are expected to be below average.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds through Monday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. We’ll have to take a close look at Wednesday through Friday of next week for a possible strong wind pattern for the south valley. Strong differences in pressure show up on surface models between off shore northern and central California and the interior. This configuration has spawned strong, gusty winds in the past so we’ll study future modeling to discern the possibilities for that time frame.
Rain Discussion. Expect dry weather through at least Monday night and possibly Tuesday night. There is a small chance of showers Tuesday. It looks like we can expect some very active weather Wednesday through Friday. A tropical connection will be possible with this event. This type of winter storm does cause strong rain shadows along the west side and in the south valley. Bottom line is, we have an excellent chance of rain Wednesday through Friday and possibly again over the weekend.
Frost Discussion: From tonight through Sunday morning, with calm conditions and clear skies, lows have the potential to drop into the mid to upper 30s. Isolated low spots could drop to freezing or a degree or two lower for short durations through Sunday morning. Modification will occur over the weekend with rising daytime highs. From Monday on, an active weather pattern will take shape for above freezing temperatures.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .74, Parlier, .68, Arvin .74, Delano .71.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier *, Arvin 64, Delano 61 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 68/45, Record Temperatures: 85/33
Heating Degree Days Season. 74 -65 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 61.6 +4.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 22 Arvin, 19 Belridge, 15 Shafter, 20 Stratford, 19 Delano 19, Porterville, NA. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:31. Sunset, 4:54. hours of daylight, 10:25
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 67 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 69 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 71 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 68 / 46 / 0.01 /
NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 73 / 50 / T /
EDW : Edwards AFB 2302 : 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
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Next report: November 8/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.