December 6, 2023
Summary: Upper level high pressure which has governed our weather for the past week has shifted eastward into the Rocky Mountain states. A trough of low pressure is now approaching the northern California coast along with its associated cold front. Ahead of the front is a weak southerly flow. That combined with downslope heating off the mountains will no doubt send temperatures into record territory this afternoon. Highs will move well into the 70s. Upper 70s are possible over the valley portion of Kern County. A cold front will move down the valley this evening. It may have enough upper air support for a chance of scattered light showers from Fresno County north. The chance drops off to almost nothing over Kern County. Winds will pick up this evening as a cooler air mass invades the region. Temperatures will drop by a good 10 to 15 degrees by Thursday with another 8 to 10 on Friday. Below freezing temperatures will be back in the forecast, which is discussed in the frost summary below. High pressure off the southern California coast will build inland over the weekend. By Monday and Tuesday, a huge blockade of high pressure will be over and off the west coast for a prolonged period of dry weather. After this evening, dry weather will last at least another 7 days and possibly as long as 10 days, although the 2 week model is hinting at the possibility of precipitation around the 13th.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this morning with patchy morning fog. Mostly cloudy by this evening with a chance of scattered light showers from Fresno County north with a slight chance south. Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Mostly cloudy over Kern County and parts of Tulare County by Thursday morning. Otherwise partly cloudy. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday with patchy fog.
Temperatures
| Madera 72/41//61/33/56 | Reedley 75/42/62/34/55 | Dinuba 73/41/61/33/57 |
| Porterville 75/41/60/35//55 | Lindsay 74/40/61/31/56 | Delano 76/42/60/35/55 |
| Bakersfield 77/47/59/40/55 | Taft 75/50/59/45/54 | Arvin 76/45/59//36/57 |
| Lamont 77/44/60/38/56 | Pixley 76/40/61/33/55 | Tulare 73/40/61/34/56 |
| Woodlake 74/41/61//34/55 | Hanford 75/43/61/35/56 | Orosi 75/40/61/33/55 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Patchy fog/mostly clear 30/57 | Sunday Patchy fog/mostly clear 31/62 | Monday Patchy fog/mostly clear 31/62 | Tuesday Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/64 | Wednesday Patchy fog/mostly clear 32/64 |
Two Week Outlook: December 12 through December18 This model continues the trend of above average temperatures. It also favors a better than even chance of picking up some rain during this time frame.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February : If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: There is roughly a 30% chance of measurable rain from Merced to Fresno County. No more than 20%of a chance in Fresno and Madera Counties, and less than 10% chance in Kern County. As you can tell, this is a very anemic system. If precipitation does occur, expect at or less than .10. Any chance of rain will be over by midnight then dry weather will prevail for at least the next week to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight with most locations above freezing Friday morning. A much cooler air mass will invade the valley behind a weak cold front. Lower 30s will be possible Friday morning in the coldest locations, however wind and lingering clouds should maintain above freezing conditions tonight. Saturday, Sunday, Monday mornings could potentially see more locations dropping down to 27 to 28 degrees with most flatland locations between 29 and 32. From Tuesday through Thursday of next week, expect widespread low to mid 30s with a few riverbottom type locations in the upper 20s. high pressure will seal in this air mass over the weekend. Now that we’re into the longest nights of the year, and the fact the valley is bone dry, good radiational cooling will be likely each night. This air mass is similar to the one we had last week but it is also one that is typical for early December. Longer range models continue to show a north to northwest flow which will cut off any potentially critically cold air mass. For now, it appears we’ll move through mid December with safe conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella af | Porterville af | Ivanhoe af | Woodlake af |
| Strathmore af | mcFarland af | Ducor af | Tea Pot Dome af |
| Lindsay af | Exeter af | Famoso af | Madera af |
| Belridge af | Delano af | North Bakersfield af | Orosi af |
| Orange Cove af | Lindcove af | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger River Bottom af |
| Root Creek af | Venice Hill af | Rosedale af | Jasmine af |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview af | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa af | Holland Creek af | Tivy Valley af |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North af |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .45, Parlier, .39, Arvin .41, Delano .40.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 54, Arvin 55, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 57/37, Record Temperatures: 70/28
Heating Degree Days Season. 395 -133 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 50.7 +3.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 266 Arvin, 197 Belridge, 212 Shafter, 227 Stratford, 236 Delano 248. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:58. Sunset, 4:42 hours of daylight, 9:46
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 68 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 69 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 68 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.71 30 2.65 112 2.37 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.97 52 2.78 149 1.86 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.00 54 2.52 135 1.86 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 28 1.50 97 1.55 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 13 2.35 147 1.60 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 11 1.63 136 1.20 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 36 0.82 91 0.90 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 35 0.62 87 0.71 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 4 0.02 8 0.25 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.70 33 2.22 105 2.11 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 109 2.50 154 1.62 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 19 2.03 110 1.85 13.32
Next report: December 6/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.