December 8, 2023
Summary: Temperatures as of 1:30 this afternoon are barely 50 degrees at most locations. A low cloud deck rapidly developed during the course of the morning. As of the time of this writing, these clouds covered most of the southern San Joaquin Valley and portions of Fresno and Madera Counties. These low clouds range from900 feet at Visalia to 2,500 feet over Meadows Field. These clouds may play a central role in tonight’s frost forecast which is explained below. Upper level high pressure located roughly 600 miles off the southern California coast is building inland over California. Pressure remains lower over the interior west resulting in a chilly northwest flow down the valley. The main storm track will move through the Pacific Northwest Sunday through Monday. By Wednesday, a stronger high will build along the Pacific coast, blocking any potential Pacific storms from getting anywhere near California. Some model information is hinting at a change about the 17th, but considering the persistence of this pattern this fall, we’ll continue with a dry forecast for the next week and possibly longer.
Forecast: partly to mostly cloudy through this evening in Kern and Tulare Counties. Mostly clear from Fresno County north. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy later tonight through Sunday night with patchy night and morning fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Friday with patchy fog late nights and mornings.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/59/29/62 | Reedley 30/60/39/62 | Dinuba 28/59/28/61 |
| Porterville 29/60/28/62 | Lindsay 28/59/28/62 | Delano 30/60/29/63 |
| Bakersfield 37/61/35/63 | Taft 37/58/38/59 | Arvin 31/61/30/63 |
| Lamont 32/61/30/63 | Pixley 29/61/29/63 | Tulare 27/60/28/62 |
| Woodlake 29/60/29/62 | Hanford 30/61/29/63 | Orosi 28/60/28/62 |
Winds: Winds through the early evening hours will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts as high as 25 mph. after midnight, winds will become light with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday through Monday will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 10 days.
Frost: A wild card in tonight’s frost forecast developed during the course of the day. A large cloud deck has developed and covers much of the south valley as well as the south/central portion. Dew points are a bit higher than I would have caught and generally run in the low 40s this afternoon. This low cloud deck is one of the reasons this is such a good citrus producing region. In most years the weather is aided by soil moisture, however in dry years, like this one has been so far, fog and low clouds can certainly play a role. There are two possible scenarios for tonight’s forecast. scenario one is that fog and low clouds remain in the valley, especially the south valley, in which case lows will be in the 30s. scenario 2 brings drier air down the valley, eroding the cloud deck from the north, in which case temperatures will range from 26 to 32. For this forecast, I’ll stick with the colder of the two scenarios as satellite imagery clearly shows the cloud deck eroding from the north through Fresno and Madera Counties. Overall, areas that remain below the cloud deck will remain above freezing. Areas with mostly clear skies will be below freezing. Using the colder forecast, coldest readings tonight will drop down to 26 to 28 with most flatland locations ranging from 28 to 32. Hillsides will be marginally above freezing. The inversion tonight will be moderate to weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 2 to 4 degrees warmer at most locations. Low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be similar, assuming the fog doesn’t take over. Models show a strong ridge developing by the middle of next week with most locations in the low to mid 30s and coldest locations possibly in the upper 20s
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella 29 | Porterville 28 | Ivanhoe 27 | Woodlake 29 |
| Strathmore 28 | McFarland 28 | Ducor 29 | Tea pot dome 29 |
| Lindsay 27 | Exeter 27 | Famoso 29 | Madera 29 |
| Belridge 28 | Delano 29 | North Bakersfield 29 | Orosi 28 |
| Orange cove 29 | Lindcove 28 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 26 |
| Root creek 28 | Venice hill 29 | Rosedale 30 | Jasmine 29 |
| Arvin 32 | Lamont 31 | Plainview 28 | Mettler 30 |
| Edison 31 | Maricopa 31 | Holland creek 31 | Tivy Valley 29 |
| Kite Road South 31 | Kite Road North 29 |
AF=Above Freezing