December 15, 2023
Summary: The center of circulation of a dome of high pressure is over southern California and north west Mexico this morning with a ridge extending northward over northern California. Yesterday, Bakersfield recorded a high of 70. This will be followed by more readings in the low 70s today and again Saturday. The high will begin to shift eastward Saturday night and Sunday as a large area of low pressure approaches the northern California coast. The system’s progress is projected to slow down, so it appears it will be Monday before precipitation reaches into central California. This first low will be followed by a second storm system from the Gulf of Alaska. From there, the pattern becomes interesting as the low will just hang off shore. As it does, bands of energy pinwheel inland for periodic chances of showers from Tuesday night through Thursday night. The trough will finally weaken and move inland around Friday of next week with generally dry weather next weekend.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Saturday night with patchy late night fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. A chance of rain Sunday night, mainly after midnight. Rain likely at times Monday night and Tuesday. A chance of showers at any given time between Wednesday and Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday.
Temperatures
| Madera 69/34/70/36/70 | Reedley 71/35/71/36/70 | Dinuba 69/34/69/35/68 |
| Porterville 71/34/71/35/68 | Lindsay 70/34/71/35/69 | Delano 71/35/71/36/67 |
| Bakersfield 71/41/72/42/71 | Taft 68/45/69/51/70 | Arvin 72/36/71/36/69 |
| Lamont 72/36/72/37/69 | Pixley 70/35/70/36/69 | Tulare 68//33/70/35/68 |
| Woodlake 69/34/70/36/69 | Hanford 69//35/69/36/68 | Orosi 68/33/69/35/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Rain likely 49/68 | Tuesday Showers likely 50/69 | Wednesday Rain likely 49/68 | Thursday Chance of showers 48/68 | Friday Partly cloudy 42/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December 22 through December28 This model shows the dome of high pressure protecting California finally breaking down. Temperatures, however, will remain somewhat below average. The risk of rain is considerably higher on this model.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February : If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: Dry conditions will more than likely continue through Sunday. There will be a minimal chance of rain reaching the west side of the valley by late Sunday night. Rain will become likely and at times through Wednesday. The first phase of this storm will be warm as subtropical moisture moves from southwest to northeast Monday through Tuesday. This configuration typically creates a rain shadow along the west side of the valley and especially in Kern County. Just as an educated guess, it would appear that between one-half and one inch of rain will be measured from Monday through Thursday from eastern Fresno County northward through eastern Madera and Merced Counties. Around a quarter to a third of an inch in western Fresno through Kings Counties and possibly a half-inch to a bit more in eastern Tulare County. I anticipate a quarter of an inch or less over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather should return by Friday of next week, lasting through the weekend.
Frost Discussion: As of 5:30am, most locations ranged in the 30s this morning. The combination of in and out high cloud cover and a modifying air mass led to a somewhat milder night than we’ve seen for a while. Saturday morning will be similar with only the very coldest river bottom type locations falling into the lower 30s. most flat terrain type operations will remain at least slightly above freezing. Similar conditions can be expected Sunday morning. For Monday and beyond, we will enter an active pattern. Mild subtropical air will move inland ahead of an off shore storm system Monday. From Monday morning through next weekend, look for above freezing temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella af | Porterville af | Ivanhoe 32 | Woodlake af |
| Strathmore af | McFarland af | Ducor af | Tea pot dome af |
| Lindsay 32 | Exeter 32 | Famoso af | Madera af |
| Belridge 32 | Delano af | North Bakersfield af | Orosi af |
| Orange cove af | Lindcove 32 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 30 |
| Root creek 31 | Venice hill af | Rosedale af | Jasmine af |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview af | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa af | Holland creek af | Tivy Valley af |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North af |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .42, Parlier, .35, Arvin .45, Delano .35.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52, Arvin 53, Delano 49
Average Temperatures: 55/37, Record Temperatures: 76/25
Heating Degree Days Season. 536 -160 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 49.6 +2.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 378 Arvin, 303 Belridge, 321 Shafter, 338 Stratford, 336 Delano 353. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:05. Sunset, 4:44 hours of daylight, 9:40
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 65 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 67 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 66 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
MERCED 0.00 1.01 42 3.77 155 2.43 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 20 2.04 96 2.12 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 10 3.25 155 2.10 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 2.34 148 1.58 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 26 1.10 91 1.21 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 29 2.15 247 0.87 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 3 0.03 9 0.32 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.70 25 3.77 136 2.77 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 81 4.34 199 2.18 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 14 3.27 135 2.43 13.32
Next report: December 15/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.