December 19, 2023
Summary: The center of circulation of an upper level low pressure system is roughly 250 miles west of Crescent City and is moving southward parallel to the California coast. The counterclockwise circulation around this storm continues to cause bands of moisture to be flung inland. Models have slowed the exit strategy of this storm. The low will be centered to the west of the Golden Gate Wednesday and just west of Vandenburg AFB Thursday. This storm will finally shift eastward Saturday, ending the precipitation threat. Satellite imagery shows some thunderstorm activity closer to the center of the storm. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening and again Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly during the warmest part of the day and mainly from Fresno County north. Dry weather will return over the Christmas holiday weekend, however a cold low center will drop into the Great Basin which will spread a cold air mass down the valley for possibly another round of frosty mornings by Sunday morning. models show another series of storms over the Pacific Northwest and northern California beginning the 27th. Models, though, differ on the southern limit of precipitation.
Forecast; Periods of showers through Friday. A slight chance of thunderstorms today through Thursday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A slight chance of showers Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Tuesday with areas of morning fog.
Temperatures
| Madera 66/49/68/47/63 | Reedley 68/49/66/49/63 | Dinuba 65/47/66/48/62 |
| Porterville 68//49/67/49/63 | Lindsay 67/47/68/47/62 | Delano 69/49/68/48/64 |
| Bakersfield 69/51/69/54/62 | Taft 66/55/65/64 | Arvin 69/51/68/52/62 |
| Lamont 69/50/68/51/63 | Pixley 66/47/68/48/63 | Tulare 65/47/66/47/63 |
| Woodlake 67/48/66/48/62 | Hanford 67/49/67/48/62 | Orosi 65/47/66/47/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Chance of showers 43/63 | Saturday AM fog/partly cloudy 39/62 | Sunday Am fog/mostly clear 35/58 | Monday Am fog/mostly clear 31/58 | Tuesday Am fog/mostly clear 31/59 |
Two Week Outlook: Christmas Day through December31 This model shows a westerly flow across the Pacific and into California. This is typically a mild pattern with above average temperatures. The risk of precipitation is fairly high with this pattern.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February: If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: periods of showers will continue through Friday. Models also show a chance for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons and evenings, but a nocturnal thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
Models continue to indicate the possibility of significant precipitation. Currently, we’re in somewhat of a lull, however one inch plus amounts are certainly possible from now through Friday. Dry weather will finally return Saturday and will continue dry through Christmas day. Models show a series of storms moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California from the 27 through the 29. It’s unclear how far south precipitation will advance.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Saturday and possibly Sunday. A colder air mass will invade the valley during the second half of the weekend. Currently, for Monday and Tuesday mornings, models show widespread low to mid 30s, so it would appear upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible on Christmas morning and the day after Christmas. After that, cloud cover should be advancing from activity to our north to hopefully keep temperatures above freezing.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .39, Parlier, .40, Arvin .48, Delano .40.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 51, Arvin 52, Delano 50
Average Temperatures: 54/36, Record Temperatures: 74/25
Heating Degree Days Season. 585 -189 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 50.3 +3.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 428 Arvin, 343 Belridge, 365 Shafter, 383 Stratford, 381 Delano 399. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:07. Sunset, 4:46 hours of daylight, 9:39
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 57 / 0.30 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 65 / 57 / 0.23 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 67 / 56 / 0.03 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 71 / 52 / T /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 70 / 53 / 0.08 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 74 / 51 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 69 / 51 / 0.07 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 72 / 50 / 0.05 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.35 1.50 44 4.47 130 3.43 13.45
MODESTO 0.63 1.69 60 4.48 159 2.82 12.27
MERCED 0.14 1.15 43 3.77 141 2.68 11.80
MADERA 0.16 0.59 25 2.04 87 2.35 10.79
FRESNO T 0.21 9 3.25 139 2.33 10.99
HANFORD T 0.13 7 2.34 133 1.76 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 0.32 24 1.10 81 1.36 6.36
BISHOP T 0.25 27 2.15 229 0.94 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 3 0.03 9 0.35 2.20
SALINAS M 0.70 23 3.77 124 3.04 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.48 2.24 92 4.34 178 2.44 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.05 0.40 15 3.27 122 2.68 13.32
Next report: December 19/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.