January 19, 2018
Summary: Light showers are occurring over the valley this morning from Fresno County south as a cold front moves through. Most locations, as of the time of this writing, have received .10 or so, and in some cases less. The front will move southeastward into Nevada and southern California this afternoon. This will allow a cold upper trough of low pressure to move in for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. The chance of showers will continue tonight with dry weather Saturday and Sunday. I anticipate there will be plenty of upslope clouds against the Sierras and the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains on Saturday, especially during the morning. These clouds will start to erode Saturday afternoon with possibly some clear skies Sunday morning. If we do have clear skies, it could lead to local frost.
The fairly active weather pattern will continue with a new system arriving in northern California Wednesday night, spreading light showers over the valley north of Kern County. Quantitative precipitation predictions are not impressive with the exception of northern California which should do pretty well. This system will move eastward Monday night for dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow areas of night and morning fog to develop.
On Thursday, model projections are showing a new storm moving inland, possibly spreading precipitation over the entire region late Wednesday night through Thursday night. beyond that, upper level high pressure will begin to take over, setting the stage for another round of fog and low clouds next weekend and into the following week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon or evening. Scattered showers tonight. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday through Saturday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday with increasing cloudiness Sunday night and a chance of light showers Monday, mainly north of Kern County. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with showers likely Thursday and Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/34/54/31/55 | Reedley 56/35/55/32/55 | Dinuba 54/34/54/31/55 | |
| Porterville 55/35/54/31/56 | Lindsay 56/33/54/30/55 | Delano 56/37/54/33/55 | |
| Bakersfield 54/40/53/35/56 | Arvin 56/40/53/34/56 | Taft 57/42/53/38/56 | |
| Lamont 56/38/53/34/56 | Pixley 55/37/54/32/54 | Tulare 55/35/54/31/55 | |
| Woodlake 56/36/54/31/56 | Hanford 57/36/54/30/55 | Orosi 56/33/54/34/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Chance of showers 42/59 |
Tuesday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 36/58 |
Wednesday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 36/61 |
Thursday
Showers likely 44/57 |
Friday
Mostly cloudy 35/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 25 through January 31: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH through this evening with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight through Saturday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH. winds Saturday night through Sunday night will be generally less than 10 MPH with winds out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts Monday.
Rain: Light showers have occurred this morning over much of the valley from Kern County northward. Rainfall amounts have been generally at .10 or less at most locations. The front is currently moving through the south valley and will soon move over the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The cold trough of low pressure will move in later this morning through tonight. Scattered showers are certainly possible with isolated thunderstorms not out of the question for this afternoon and evening. Dry weather will return Saturday and last through Sunday night.
The next system in the series will arrive Monday. Models generally show rain over the northern half of the state so there will be a chance of showers Monday and Monday night, mainly north of Kern County.
A dry slot of weather will occur Tuesday through Wednesday then storm number 3 will head our way. It appears stronger and so far is headed further south. This would greatly increase the possibility of this being a more substantial system.
Dry weather will return Friday, lasting well into the following week.
Frost: The colder air mass we’ve been discussing will arrive later today with many locations seeing temperatures in the lower 30s tonight. Like any situation after a cold front moves through, the air is somewhat chaotic, plus we should see substantial upslope clouds on the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. Therefore most, if not all, locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. I wouldn’t rule out a river bottom or two out there lowering into the low 30s but for now that seems to be the extent of it.
There will be a greater risk of frost Sunday morning as the atmosphere settles down and less cloud cover will be observed. Upper 20s and lower 30s are certainly possible with coldest river bottom and similar locations falling down to 27 to 29 tonight, but that’s only under ideal frost conditions.
Monday morning should be cloudy as a new system moves through for above freezing conditions. Tuesday and Wednesday’s temperatures should range in the mid 30s to the lower 40s with a slight chance of low 30s in the typical cold spots.
Cloud cover from the next system will move through Thursday and Friday for above freezing conditions. High pressure will then move in from the west, theoretically setting up conditions for more fog and low clouds. at any rate, there is very little frost threat for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 30s. Low to mid 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 65%/95% Bakersfield, 70%.95%
Actual Humidity January 17, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/83%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 10% tomorrow 40%, Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 17, 2018: Stratford .14, Parlier .15, Blackwell, .27 Lindcove .19, Arvin .25, Orange Cove .25, Porterville .14, Delano .NA., Madera Two 15. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 55, Delano NA, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1062, -419 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 53.3 +8.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.23 season. or -3.48. Month to Date: .82
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .88, or -1.72, Month to Date: .82
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 545, Parlier, 583, Arvin, 528, Shafter, 641, Stratford, 581, Madera two, 933, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 648, Porterville, 870. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 5:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 53 / 49 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1559 / 61 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1558 / 58 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.52 56 11.09 176 6.30 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.25 58 9.05 162 5.57 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.99 37 8.98 169 5.32 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.31 24 7.65 141 5.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.23 26 8.88 186 4.77 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.68 36 5.29 114 4.65 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.88 33 4.74 180 2.64 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 9 4.06 174 2.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.13 39 7.81 145 5.40 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.16 41 8.10 154 5.27 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 35 8.58 152 5.63 13.95
Next Report: Friday afternoon/January 19