February 9, 2024
Summary It’s been a while since we’ve seen widespread temperatures in the 30s. most ag locations are above freezing, however. Finally, a ridge of upper level high pressure is slowly building in from the west as the active pattern is taking a temporary hiatus. By Saturday, the high will stretch from off the southern California coast northward along the west coast to off the coast of British Columbia. This will block any potential storminess through Wednesday of next week. models show a rapidly weakening cold front moving through northern and central California beginning Thursday of next week. However, the front will lose its upper air support so for now, it appears precipitation will remain generally north of Merced. We’re still studying the pattern beginning a week from Saturday. A strong low pressure system both at the surface and aloft is approaching the California coast. Attached to the low is an infamous AR moving into central and southern California for potentially heavy precipitation. this is the third day in a row models have been returning us to a very wet weather pattern. the two week outlook is indicating a 70% to 80% chance of above average precipitation between the 16th and the 22nd.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy with occasional patchy night and early morning low clouds. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday night. variable cloudiness Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/33/56/32/60 | Reedley 56/34/56/33/61 | Dinuba 55/32/56/32/60 |
| Porterville 54/33/56/32/61 | Lindsay 54/32/55/31/59 | Delano 55/34/56/33/61 |
| Bakersfield 53/38/56/36/61 | Taft 51/39/51/37/56 | Arvin 55/34/55/33/61 |
| Lamont 56/35/55/32/61 | Pixley 55/34/56/32/60 | Tulare 53/32/54/31/59 |
| Woodlake 54/33/55/32/59 | Hanford 54/35/55/33/61 | Orosi 54/32/55/31/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Mostly clear with patchy fog 36/62 | Tuesday Mostly clear with patchy fog 35/63 | Wednesday Mostly clear with patchy fog 38/64 | Thursday Variable clouds 40/66 | Friday Variable clouds 42/66 |
Two Week Forecast: February 16 through February 22: There is a 70% to 80% chance of above average precipitation during this time frame. In fact, modeling appears similar to that which produced all the wild weather recently. These storms will likely have a pineapple connection, resulting in above average temperatures.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 12 mph range through Monday. Local gusts to 20 mph are possible near showers today and tonight.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday night and possibly until Saturday of next week. models show a rapidly weakening system moving through next Thursday. We’ll keep a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast for Thursday from Fresno north. Today marks the fourth day in a row that medium range models are painting a very active pattern beginning a week from tomorrow. A strong low is projected to approach the California coast with another active AR moving into central and southern California. Theoretically, this could lead to significant precipitation. This model also indicates a second system about a week from Monday or so. Keep in mind, these are longer range outlooks, but whenever models show a multi day trend, I do take it seriously.
Frost: Thirties were widespread throughout the growing area overnight. The coldest I could find was 31 degrees at both Sanger and Ivanhoe and 32 at Madera. All other locations were at least slightly above the freezing mark. There is a batch of mid and high level clouds moving from north to south over northern California. These clouds will be overhead much of tonight. The high resolution NBM model indicates anywhere from 58% to 90% chance of cloud cover tonight. This will slow the radiational cooling process, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 30s at most locations. Models show skies will be clear Sunday and Monday mornings so low to mid 30s will be widespread with possibly an isolated river bottom or two in the upper 20s. temperatures will slowly moderate as we move through next week, keeping temperatures above freezing. There is no pattern projected suggesting below freezing temperatures in the longer term.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella Af | Porterville Af | Ivanhoe 32 | Woodlake af |
| Strathmore af | McFarland af | Ducor Af | Tea pot dome af |
| Lindsay 32 | Exeter 32 | Famoso af | Madera 32 |
| Belridge 32 | Delano af | North Bakersfield af | Orosi af |
| Orange cove af | Lindcove 32 | Lindcove Hillside AF | Sanger river bottom 31 |
| Root creek 32 | Venice hill af | Rosedale af | Jasmine af |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview af | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa af | Holland creek af | Tivy Valley af |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North af |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30 to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .25, Parlier, .26, Arvin .41, Delano .42.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Arvin NA, Delano 56
Average Temperatures: 60/39, Record Temperatures: 78/27
Heating Degree Days Season. 1246 -475 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .5.15, Monthly 2.35
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.25, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature this Month 53.1 +4.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 675 Arvin, 591 Belridge, 590 Shafter, 638 Stratford, 658 Delano 663. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:53. Sunset, 5:34 hours of daylight, 10:39
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 35 / 0.03 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 53 / 35 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 51 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 56 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 41 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 53 / 36 / 0.13 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 53 / 36 / 0.01 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON T 9.07 115 15.75 200 7.89 13.45
MODESTO 0.02 11.36 161 13.54 192 7.04 12.27
MERCED 0.03 8.69 133 13.47 206 6.54 11.80
MADERA T 5.80 100 5.14 89 5.80 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.15 87 9.83 166 5.91 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.10 117 6.99 160 4.37 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 4.25 125 4.50 132 3.40 6.36
BISHOP 0.03 3.09 114 8.73 323 2.70 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP T 2.38 240 0.39 39 0.99 2.20
SALINAS T 8.28 113 9.13 125 7.31 12.58
PASO ROBLES T 11.97 175 12.94 189 6.84 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.07 8.42 116 13.61 188 7.23 13.32
MADERA 0.12 5.39 94 5.14 90 5.73 10.79
FRESNO 0.04 4.44 76 9.83 168 5.85 10.99
HANFORD 0.04 4.74 110 6.99 162 4.32 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.11 4.14 123 4.50 134 3.36 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.06 115 8.73 327 2.67 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.61 2.70 278 0.39 40 0.97 2.20
SALINAS 0.63 8.10 112 9.13 126 7.23 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.32 11.97 177 12.94 192 6.75 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.71 8.17 115 13.61 191 7.13 13.32