February 11, 2024
Summary With clear skies overnight, leading to good radiational cooling, temperatures at most locations dropped into the low to mid 30s. Similar conditions can be expected tonight. Upper level high pressure now covers the eastern Pacific and roughly the western one-quarter of the US. Temperatures will warm incrementally through midweek. A weak weather system will enter northern California Wednesday night and Thursday but it appears precipitation will remain north of a Monterey/Stockton line. We are still watching with great interest the pattern for the coming weekend and into early next week. Models are still trending towards an intense low being off the Oregon/northern California coast by Saturday. This system parallels the most recent system that brought high winds and heavy rain to California. Some of the models this morning have pushed back precipitation arrival times to Sunday. However, other models show precipitation spreading in from the west as early as Friday night. the risk factor for heavy rain and strong winds with this system appears high. Like the last system, it will be a slow mover. An atmospheric river is evident on models. What is not clear as of this time is where this AR will move on shore. Dry weather will return by a week from Wednesday as high pressure finally fills in from the west.
Forecast: Outside of patchy morning fog, it will be mostly clear through Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday. Variable cloudiness at times Wednesday night through Friday. A slight chance of showers Friday night. A chance of showers Saturday. Rain becoming likely at times Saturday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/33/62/35/63 | Reedley 62/33/63/34/62 | Dinuba 60/32/62/34/63 |
| Porterville 63/33/63/34/64 | Lindsay 62/31/63/33/62 | Delano 63/34/64/35/64 |
| Bakersfield 62/38/63/38/65 | Taft 59/40/60/41/61 | Arvin 63/34/63/35/64 |
| Lamont 62/34/63/36/64 | Pixley 61/34/62/35/63 | Tulare 61/32/62/34/63 |
| Woodlake 61/33/62/34/63 | Hanford 61/34/63/35/63 | Orosi 61/33/62/34/63 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday Mostly clear 36/63 | Thursday Variable clouds 39/65 | Friday Mostly cloudy 42/64 | Saturday Chance of showers 48/66 | Sunday Rain likely 50/64 |
Two Week Forecast: February 18 through February 24: There is a 70% to 80% chance of above average precipitation during this time frame. In fact, modeling appears similar to that which produced all the wild weather recently. These storms will likely have a pineapple connection, resulting in above average temperatures.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 12 mph range through Wednesday. The potential for strong winds in the extreme south valley and along the west side will begin to increase Saturday through Sunday, although not as strong as the last storm we went through. There is a rather steep pressure gradient between off shore northern California and Nevada. The timing of this, if it happens at all, is speculative due to differences in models. Suffice it to say, sometime during the weekend should it occur. We’ll keep you posted.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through probably Friday. A system will brush northern California Wednesday night and Thursday but for now appears any precipitation will remain north of a Monterey/Stockton line. We’re still watching the pattern for the weekend and through Tuesday of next week. yet another powerful Pacific storm shows up along the Oregon/northern California coast by Saturday. Models portray another pineapple connection for the potential of heavy amounts of rain and heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada. The GFS model has pushed back the arrival time of precipitation until Sunday while other models stick with Friday night and Sunday. At the very least, significant precipitation will no doubt occur between Saturday and Tuesday.
Frost: Most locations fell into the low to mid 30s overnight. Readings tonight will be near that to a degree or two milder. Coldest river bottom type locations could potentially chill down to 30 degrees with most locations between 32 and 36. Expect another degree or so of moderation Tuesday morning. by Wednesday, most locations will be above freezing with further moderation Thursday and continuing through the remainder of the week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella 33 | Porterville 33 | Ivanhoe 32 | Woodlake 33 |
| Strathmore 32 | McFarland Af | Ducor Af | Tea pot dome 33 |
| Lindsay 31 | Exeter 32 | Famoso Af | Madera 32 |
| Belridge 31 | Delano Af | North Bakersfield af | Orosi 32 |
| Orange cove Af | Lindcove 32 | Lindcove Hillside AF | Sanger river bottom 30 |
| Root creek 32 | Venice hill 33 | Rosedale Af | Jasmine Af |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview 32 | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa af | Holland creek af | Tivy Valley 32 |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North 32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30 to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .31, Parlier, .29, Arvin .42, Delano .44.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 54, Arvin NA, Delano 55
Average Temperatures: 60/40, Record Temperatures: 77/28
Heating Degree Days Season. 1282 -469 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .5.15, Monthly 2.35
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.25, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature this Month 51.9 +2.9 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 699 Arvin, 609 Belridge, 617 Shafter, 666 Stratford, 685 Delano 689. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:51. Sunset, 5:36 hours of daylight, 10:43
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 56 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 55 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 54 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 57 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 56 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 58 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 56 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 56 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.00 9.07 113 15.75 195 8.06 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 11.36 158 13.54 188 7.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 8.70 130 13.47 201 6.69 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.80 98 5.14 87 5.93 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.15 85 9.83 162 6.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.10 114 6.99 156 4.47 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.25 122 4.50 129 3.48 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.10 113 8.73 317 2.75 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 233 0.39 38 1.02 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.28 111 9.13 122 7.48 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.97 171 12.94 185 7.00 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.42 113 13.61 183 7.43 13.32