February 12, 2024
Summary Low to mid 30s are widespread throughout the growing area again this morning. central California is underneath an area of weak high pressure. Daytime highs will rise to marginally above average today and Tuesday then will climb further Thursday and Friday ahead of a weak trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest Thursday. That trough will spread light showers over northern California Thursday, possibly down to a Monterey/Merced line, however it’s doubtful any measurable precipitation will fall south of Merced County. Models continue to trend towards a major winter storm event that will come in two phases. The first phase will arrive late Friday night and Saturday as central California will be on the eastern side of a very large low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This system will spread precipitation over all of central California Saturday and at times through Sunday. However, the second phase of this pattern will be a deep surface low which will intensify due west of San Francisco Monday. Plenty of isobars show up on surface models for Monday and Tuesday, meaning the risk factor for strong winds will increase, especially Monday into Tuesday. Also, yet another river of moist air will flow into central and southern California for potentially heavy amounts of precipitation. The GFS model shows that low almost cutting off and meandering just off the coast Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, prolonging the chance for precipitation well into next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning with patchy fog. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon through tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday into Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night leading to a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north Thursday. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night through Friday. Increasing clouds Friday night with a slight chance of showers after midnight. Periods of rain Saturday through Monday with strong gusty winds Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/35/63/37/65 | Reedley 64/34/64/37/65 | Dinuba 62/34/63/36/64 |
| Porterville 63/35/63/35/65 | Lindsay 64/34/63/36/64 | Delano 64/35/64/38/66 |
| Bakersfield 65/39/65/41/66 | Taft 60/43/61/43/62 | Arvin 65/38/63/39/65 |
| Lamont 65/37/65/39/66 | Pixley 63/35/64/37/65 | Tulare 62/34/63/36/64 |
| Woodlake 63/34/63/37/65 | Hanford 64/35/64/38/66 | Orosi 63/34/64/36/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Mostly cloudy 40/65 | Friday Mostly cloudy 44/65 | Saturday Periods of rain 49/66 | Sunday Periods of rain 49/66 | Monday Rain/wind 51/67 |
Two Week Forecast: February 18 through February 24: There is a 70% to 80% chance of above average precipitation during this time frame. In fact, modeling appears similar to that which produced all the wild weather recently. These storms will likely have a pineapple connection, resulting in above average temperatures.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of calm conditions through Thursday. We’re still looking down the road at some possible strong winds late Monday into Tuesday. Surface models for that time frame are depicting significant differences in pressure between off shore northern and central California and Nevada. These models are quite similar to those of a week or so ago which resulted in locally damaging winds in Kern County. So far, the difference is not quite as strong as the earlier storm but don’t be surprised if 50-60 mph gusts are in the forecast for late Sunday into Tuesday in the extreme south valley and 40 mph gusts along the west side but locally elsewhere.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Friday with the possible exception of Thursday night when the trailing portion of a weak trough moves through central California, resulting in a minimal chance of light showers from Fresno County north. We are still looking at a multi-day rain event beginning Saturday and lasting through at least Tuesday of next week. this could even extend beyond Tuesday as some models are now showing a stationary low just off the central coast through Thursday of next week. the potential for heavy precipitation is there, especially Monday and Tuesday when a powerful Pacific storm is pegged to be just off shore. This far out, it’s difficult to discern how much precipitation we’ll get but a good 1-2 inches north of Kern County would not be a surprise.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight but at or near 32 in the very coldest locations. The air mass continues to slowly moderate, plus we will see high clouds above the valley tonight. Most locations will range from 33 to 38 degrees. In fact, all locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the remainder of the week. there is still nothing on models suggesting a pattern conducive for a freeze event.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .34, Parlier, .35, Arvin .39, Delano .42.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Arvin 59, Delano 54
Average Temperatures: 61/40, Record Temperatures: 82/27
Heating Degree Days Season. 1299 -467 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .5.15, Monthly 2.35
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.25, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature this Month 51.5 +2.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 714 Arvin, 617 Belridge, 628 Shafter, 679 Stratford, 699 Delano 697. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:50. Sunset, 5:37 hours of daylight, 10:45
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 62 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 60 / 37 / 0.00 54 186 7.27 12.27
MERCED 0.00 8.70 129 13.47 199 6.76 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.80 97 5.14 86 5.99 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.15 84 9.83 161 6.11 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.10 113 6.99 155 4.52 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.25 121 4.50 128 3.52 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 3.10 111 8.73 313 2.79 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 229 0.39 38 1.04 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.28 110 9.26 122 7.56 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.97 169 13.07 185 7.08 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 8.42 112 13.61 181 7.53 13.32